jacobsharktank said:

i don't know or think we can really speculate on getting their stack with those exact hands when its easier to just muck and move on. youve put in 20% of your stack and youre looking to put another 10% so if you think he has less than top pair here any chunk of the time, semibluff is an option, but i don't know if you can or need to worry about that this paritcular hand.

folding you still have 4k and thatl give you a reshove stack when blinds go up. when yhou call and fold almost 90% of the time on the river, youll have 3500 and then only 18bb. i guess it's not much different, but idk. i think you could use your chips more wisely than drawing to 6 outs on the turn no?

I agree with your ultimate conclusion, but I liked your earlier posts in this thread much better than this one, because those earlier posts dealt with pot odds and equity. The stuff you're talking about here should really be only a very marginal factor in your decisions. I mean, it's always “easier to just muck and move on”, the most profitable play isn't always the easiest one. Likewise, I don't think being left with 18 BB when you lose would be a good reason not to make an otherwise profitable play, nor would being left with 4K by folding be a good reason to pass up a profitable call.

You're clearly capable of working out the Expected Value of a play, so just focus on making +EV plays. When they work, you'll get chips. When they don't, you play whatever stack you end up with and look for the next +EV play.