August 16, 2013
jacobsharktank said:
You're not so much betting for protection as you're just actually value betting. Theyll call with worse.
RW, this is a beautiful statement and I think it's important you understand what Jacob is saying.
“Protection” is the reason you put a condom on your weiner*, not why you put money in a pot. You put money in a pot either to get value (getting called by worse, which, as Jacob pointed out, can readily happen on such a connected board) or to get better hands to fold – otherwise known as bluffing. A lot of people think that charging draws is “protection” but it's not, it's value. If they fold their draws, you will have successfully “protected” your hand and gotten no value for it. You may as well have not put the condom on in the first place.
As played, value betting the flop is fine as you will certainly get called by a wide range of worse hands, although you would obviously be circumspect about putting more money in the pot – so if you get raised, that's a sign that you should probably fold. The sizing is problematic because of the stack sizes – as I'll discuss on the turn, the SPRs are awkward and you'd be better off making either a larger c-bet (if you want this to be a two street hand) or a smaller c-bet (if you want this to be a three street hand). Four ways I probably lean towards larger and two streets.
The turn is a great card for you. You may not have the best hand, but you might, and there's still value to be gotten from worse. Your sizing is a little weird though because of the villains' stack sizes. The BTN has a bit less than 1.5x the pot, and the SB has less than the pot. I would either bet much smaller to induce a “what the hell, I have a pair and a draw” shove from one of the two villains, or just shove yourself.
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*TPE's automated censorship script made this statement a lot less awesome than in the first draft.
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