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(3 votes) 
May 20, 2013
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League is a 30 man MTT monthly. Players are known to each other. This hand is at the 300/600/50 level and Hero has 18k (30BB). We are 8 handed with 16 left.
The BB (who will shortly be the villain) is a known calling station when he hits a flop, but more importantly plays almost his entire range as check-call.
I am dealt 9h9d UtG+1 and I raise to 1500. Folds around to BB who calls.
There is about 3600 in the pot.
Flop is Js9c3s and BB checks. I know he will call a bet here if he has anything, so I bet 1700 into the 3600 and he calls. The pot is now 7k.
Turn is the 7d. BB checks.
HERO?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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I'd bet 4000 or so planning to shove most rivers.
June 23, 2014
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$4000 to $4500 seems about right, as it does set you up for a perfect river shove. What was Villain's effective stack?
October 21, 2013
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I think i would be c betting bigger on this flop (around 1950-2100) with my entire c betting range (flush draws, straight draw, tp, sets)
And then yeah bet around 4500 5000 on the turn to shove the river
January 16, 2014
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Riar said:
I think i would be c betting bigger on this flop (around 1950-2100) with my entire c betting range (flush draws, straight draw, tp, sets)
And then yeah bet around 4500 5000 on the turn to shove the river
Against this type of opponent I prefer to take a super unbalanced approach to bet sizing. When you bet with a draw you don't expect him to fold any made hand or draw, so why put in more chips when you don't have to? I just don't think it accomplishes anything. In this spot if I decide to cbet I'm doing something like betting smallish (about 1500) with draws, air, and weak jacks or worse pairs, and betting on the larger size (maybe around 2200) with strong jacks and monsters (I would have a check back range too, but you get the idea).
October 21, 2013
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If , like you are saying, your draw has no fe at all vs any part of villain’s range then…why are you betting at all ?
January 16, 2014
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I'm not say a bet has no fold equity at all, I'm saying a 1500 bet has the exact same fold equity that a 2200 bet has (against this specific player type). So in this case the purpose of betting a draw would be to get better hands to fold (like A2o or K7s), and you would want to choose the smallest amount to make that happen.
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December 6, 2012
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JD said:
I'm not say a bet has no fold equity at all, I'm saying a 1500 bet has the exact same fold equity that a 2200 bet has (against this specific player type). So in this case the purpose of betting a draw would be to get better hands to fold (like A2o or K7s), and you would want to choose the smallest amount to make that happen.
I agree with this vs a truly price-insensitive opponent. I'm a little wary of it, though, because it's such an obvious and easy pattern: big bets are a lot stronger than small bets! I've been owned more than once by seemingly clueless opponents who correctly soul read me when I try too blatantly to exploit them.
October 6, 2010
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yep, first thing we gotta think of is how elastic his range is. i think i could almost pot it here, and try and commit him by the turn so he puts it in automatically on the river.
October 21, 2013
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I was just thinking about this hand and a silly thought came to mind:
why dont we overbet flop (around 4.4K) in order to shove the turn with a psb left ? it will have multiple merits given villains description: when we have a draw (fd/straight draw) it will give us max fe vs tp, when we have tp/op/sets will extract max value from his weaker hand/ draws…
any comments ?
October 6, 2010
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Riar said:
I was just thinking about this hand and a silly thought came to mind:
why dont we overbet flop (around 4.4K) in order to shove the turn with a psb left ? it will have multiple merits given villains description: when we have a draw (fd/straight draw) it will give us max fe vs tp, when we have tp/op/sets will extract max value from his weaker hand/ draws…
any comments ?
yep. though i have found fish are more likely to just see this as extreme strength. but if they are the type that cant even calculate pot size, why not
May 20, 2013
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ok, Here is the update: My bet sizing on the flop was based on keeping in his most stubborn range of Ax. Perhaps he would float with overs if I did not bet too big to set off an alarm. (I was the effective stack in the hand, btw.) But I wanted to get $$$ into the pot since I know he tends to check-call too often.
On the Turn, I spent about 20 seconds thinking and bet 5k. He went into the tank and after about 30 seconds said (paraphrasing) “I hit the board and have a big draw”. After hearing that, I KNOW his hand is As9s.
Since I know he will check ANY river, I am thrilled. He has 7 (3s, 7s are mine now) spade outs for about 15% equity. The 3s, 7s or an Ace I am confident will allow me to shove and get called by a Flush or rivered ace vs. my boat. Even if I cant count on the Aces call (and I think I get it), I am condident he goes broke with the board pairing with a spade. He has to call 5k to win 12k, no where near 6-1 he needs here, so I feel good about my bet and that I can fold and have exactly 20 BB if a he hits his gin cards, since I am 100% sure of his exact hand.
RESULT:
He calls and the pot is now 17k and I have 12k behind.
Turn is the 5s, he checks, I check behind and he shows As9s and takes a undeserved pot.
He did speculate that he would have folded had I shoved the turn… But that would have been a 17k bet into 7k.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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ltcolumbo said:
RESULT:
He calls and the pot is now 17k and I have 12k behind.Turn is the 5s, he checks, I check behind and he shows As9s and takes a undeserved pot.
He did speculate that he would have folded had I shoved the turn… But that would have been a 17k bet into 7k.
Why would you want him to fold the turn?
There is no “deserve” in poker. You aren't “supposed” to win when you have the best hand. I know this was just an offhand comment, but the sooner you get over this entitlement mentality, the fewer problems you will have with tilt.
May 20, 2013
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I really did NOT want him to fold the turn, I wanted to maximize the value I could get from the hand when he missed. I think if I bet bigger, he might have found a fold. I guess I posted the hand for validation and to see how others might have played the hand…
As for my offhand comment on “deserved”, I was trying to state that I thought I played correctly and that I forced my opponent to make a bad decision. That is all I can really hope for in poker, that I make good decisions and even better force opponents into bad spots/decisions. If I play the hand correctly and he makes a mistake and wins the pot, I still should be pleased with myself. But that is sort a flowery and lacks the indignation of “undeserved” 😉
My bigger concern now is if I am coming off like a blustering asshat in my posts?
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December 6, 2012
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ltcolumbo said:
My bigger concern now is if I am coming off like a blustering asshat in my posts?
No, but I probably am.
He didn't make a mistake. I mean, he did if he can see your hand, but otherwise calling with a pair and the the nut flush draw is beyond reasonable. If anything his mistake was not betting river.
This is one of the reasons it gets dicey to talk in terms of who deserved what. Did he deserve to river a flush? What if the river is a blank, did you deserve that? What if the river is an offsuit A and you stack him, did you deserve that? Did you deserve to get a dealt a set when he had a pair + flush draw? There are lots of kinds of luck in poker, calling from behind and getting there on the river is only one of them.
May 20, 2013
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yeah, fair enough. I guess I “score” my play sometimes to keep the volatility from getting to me…
and I dont think you are coming off badly, since I am the one seeking the wisdom, then I must accept whatever forms it comes in!
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