January 27, 2013
Hey Guys, My run of bad variance continues. At this point I need to make sure that it is indeed varaince and not bad play. This was a high-5 easy shove for me. I have good fold equity and villian has been stealing his share of blinds. Does anyone call preflop and fold on bad flops?
Merge 2$ buyin/ 2K (I think)
Blinds are 4000/8000
14 players left in tourney
Villian is in cuttoff, has 80BB, 30/10/6 with 90 hands, has stolen blinds 2/5 from late pos
Action = folded around to villian who 3*
hero = on the button with KQo, Shove with 21BB
SB has 11BB and has been attive 20/15/6 with 113 hands
BB has 22BB and just arrived at the table
I see great fold equity and shove easily.
If this is not an easy shove for you, why? What other factors do I need to consider?
Thanks
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
Seems fine to me unless the 3x is out of the ordinary for V. If he usually raises smaller, the sudden large raise could be a red flag, but I think shoving this should be the default for the reasons you gave.
That doesn't mean that all of your problems are due to variance though. Even if you are getting the last decision right and just getting unlucky on the hands where you bust, it's entirely possible that you're getting a lot of other stuff wrong along the way which means that you are routinely short stacked and in a spot where any all-in could be your last.
November 4, 2013
The only striking thing I notice here is that villian is 30/10/6, which seems quite loose passive to me. This leads me to believe that he's likely only raising top of his range. The shove really is probably the “best” play, but I may be more inclined to flat and play post flop in position here. If we whiff flop, we are still going to have 18BB.
While I think shoving is probably default, just wanted to give you another line to consider. If this player is more in the 30/18/6 range, he would likely have hands such as KJ/KT/K9S, QJs/QTs/Q9s in his range as hands we are absolutely crushing. If he's going for a much more polarized stealing range, he will possibly have hands like K2-K4s and Q2-Q4s as well. We don't want to be shoving here and folding those hands out. He's going to call off with all hands that beat us, but fold the ones we crush that can flop top pair and pay us off at least 1 bet.
January 27, 2013
Thanks for the replies guys.
Andrew: There is no doubt that I am getting some stuff wrong along the way. There is also no doubt that I an c-bet more, double barreling more, bluffing rivers in the right spots and many other chip collecting methods. Thanks in large part to your videos. Also purchased your premium podcast. Can only listen to for about 10 minute chucks before my brain starts to hurt.
P.S. Varaince has decided to throw me a bone. Binked a 2K yesterday for $750. Its a start.
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