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Hi guys
Just been reading my copy of ‘Kill Everyone’ and have a question regarding the chapter that deals with ICM. Hopefully one of you guys can clarify for me
At the beginning of the chapter it explains about ICM – how the value of chips changes throughout the course of a tournament depending on the payout structure. It also explains that in a winner takes all tournament that the value of the chips never changes – understood.
Also, in my version of the book bertrand ‘Elky’ Grospellier in his commentery explains how, in MTT’s, he’s not concerned with what they term the ‘bubble factor’ (effect of ICM) since his only goal is winning.
So, if ICM is concerned with the monetary value of your chips and your only goal is winning the MTT (playing to win a bracelet for example) – then it follows that ICM shouldn’t play any factor in your decision making because the money means nothing to you.
So to my question – does this mean by playing for the win and ignoring ICM your sacrificing $Ev in order to increase your chances of winning the MTT?
If that’s true, then in the long run playing for the win isn’t actually the optimal strategy if your primary goal is to make money… since in playing for the win your losing money over the long run.
I know my conclusion is incorrect since Bigdog always talks about playing for the win in his vids, and he makes money like there’s no tomorrow. So where did I go wrong in my reasoning?
Sorry about the long-ass question. Just struggling to reconcile the two concepts.
Nice question g0liath
The one most important truth i take away from reading your post that i completely agree with is that 'ignoring ICM' is losing money in the long run, period.
The answer to your question really lies in somehow calculating the $ you sacrifice by ignoring ICM at every point in a tournament that it comes up, and running it against the probability that you win after ignoring it.
By disregarding ICM and treating every tournament like it's a winner take all tourney, you probably do increase your chances of winning it, but the cost is that we are ignoring every other place ITM. That's where the long term loss comes out.
My question is; can you ignore ICM more, the better the player you are?
for example
Hero was faced with an all-in on the WSOP ME bubble and the player UTG with 1 chip had already folded. Hero has 80BB's and and he KNEW that villain was shoving his 90BB stack 100% of the time
Hero has QQ. This is clearly an ICM fold.
Lets say we ignore ICM and call. we lose a certain amount of the time Y multiplied by $0 and win Z multiplied by $F
Lets say Elky ignores ICM and calls. He loses a certain amount of the time Y multiplied by $0 and wins Z multiplied by $F
where ($F) is the amount of money we eventually make throughout the tourney
In theory can a better player such as Elky, by ignoring ICM, increase his $ more than we?
Throw away all of those min cashes knowing that when he does win the “hand that he is supposed to fold”, he will more than recoup all of that lost money?
Are there really people who are good enough to ingore ICM and it be profitable?
It may well be and of those people is gifting us his knowledge on this site
TPE Pro
TPE Management
July 20, 2010
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one thing that is lost in all of this is what does winning bring me awy from the table? not to get into any specifics but the players who win are the players who sign pro deals and have huge revenue streams of the table this is something that you cant calculate, what about the additional million dollars thats been handed out to every wsop main event champ for WINNING and the life changeing deal he signs. play to win imo
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