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January 26, 2015
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Hi guys,
Would love to hear the ICM implications behind this Live MTT hand with AJo at a small BI pub game ie by folding my AJo & if UTG busts, I could ladder up.
I had just made the money & wondered what the correct pre-flop ICM decision with AJo here would be? I know the actual monetary amount isn’t that large (NB: #nitcast I know, any amount can be a large amount), though if it was much larger, I’m curious to know what to do if a similar spot comes up.
Let me know if I’ve missed out any required info. Will post hand results in next post as per forum guidelines.
$25 BI, start stack 20K chips, +1 R or A ($20 for 20K chips), plus member bonuses between 3-5K chips.
Total chips in play; 1.2million (give or take 50K).
34 players, prizepool $1680 (pub tops up pool).
Top 4 paid; 1st – $800, 2nd – $480, 3rd – $250, 4th – $150.
4 players left. Hero is short-stack in SB with <1BB
Blinds: 25K/50K no antes
Stacks (& brief player type descript):
BTN: 860K (Folds this hand)
SB (Hero): 45K (Rock-like image, had given a few walks & not played many FT pots)
BB: 195K (Solid winning reg, knows when to put pressure on weakness & when to make big folds)
UTG: 100K (Drunk rec, has image for both making overly tight folds & bad light calls. Here has been patiently folding).
Avg chip-stack when FT started was only 6-7BB’s :-).
Previous hand, the bubble had just burst when 2nd Big stack < Big stack. I folded my BB (83o) to a raise, & re-raise with
Pre-flop action: UTG shoves, CL Button folds, action is on Hero with AJo.
For ICM calcs, potential ranges are;
UTG: 22+, Ax suited, ATo+, mayyybe KQ suited
BB: would call if has 88+, AT+ suited, AJo+
Any thoughts would be much appreciated :-).
Cheers,
Merv.
July 7, 2012
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Just checking i read that correct, you are in SB with less than one big blind? I cant imagine that folding AJo with less than one blind would ever be recomended by any form of calculation especially as you alrady have chips in the pot.
January 26, 2015
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Thanks Turbulence,
Yes you did read that correctly, I just thought that maybe with a potential 67% increase in $ because of the next short-stack being all-in that it possibly be could “correct” in some circumstances to fold (e.g 73o). As I’m not too familiar with how ICM calcs might work, I thought it was worth asking if/where any cut-off line where it was correct might be?
Appreciate your response :-).
May 20, 2015
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This is quite an interesting spot and one where in game I’d likely flick it in superwide. I ran a calc and you should actually be calling much narrower (around 17.2%) than I would have instinctively thought given the range you’ve assigned villain. Whilst your AJo is a call I was surprised to see you should be folding A9o A7s and 22-44. Also in equilibrium villain should actually be shoving lighter than the range you assigned him, shoving this range ATo+, A9s+ KJs+ 66+. Although I think in game we likely see a wider range than you’ve assigned him, I think it’s unlikely he’ll be able to throw any Ax, QJo+, JTs+ into the muck especially as he’s BB in the next hand and will have to commit 1/2 his stack.
July 7, 2012
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astro247 said
Thanks Turbulence,Yes you did read that correctly, I just thought that maybe with a potential 67% increase in $ because of the next short-stack being all-in that it possibly be could “correct” in some circumstances to fold (e.g 73o). As I’m not too familiar with how ICM calcs might work, I thought it was worth asking if/where any cut-off line where it was correct might be?
Appreciate your response :-).
I understand where you are coming from and it is a good question to ask in general. I am learning and experimenting with Holdem Resources Manager at the moment so I will try to plug it in for you out of curiosity and have a play with it.
I this scenario if you fold you are hoping the BB will call and win, but this is far from certain as he is risking 50% of his stack whilst you are so short. As the shorty here (and we are talking exceptionally short), and having made it into the money it is your duty to gamble in this spot and triple up. If the stack sizes were deeper and you had say 11 or 12 bbs then you might be able to pass the spot.
July 7, 2012
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ok, I put the numbers you provided into HRM and the simple answer get it in with any 2 cards. AJo is showing as +1.85 which is massive.
Just out of interest I increased all stack sizes by a factor of 10 thereby giving you ~9bbs. It still comes back as calling it off with AJo as being a v profitable play at +0.38.
Hope this helps.
January 26, 2015
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Hi kmid & Turbulence,
I probably should’ve said more about the game in general is def not a pro game lol (e.g 6 ppl on the table last night had never heard the word Hijack used :-).
kmid – Thanks for the calc, makes me feel better for at least thinking about my decision for more than 3 seconds. Villain had folded JJ & KQo a few hands prior & seemed to be having one of his patiently-folding night, hence the tightish range I gave him. (On other nights I’ve seen him calling down with bottom pair & thinking it’s good). Very interesting range you’ve given me heaps to think about, mainly how to adjust for “non-equilibrium players”, tighter or looser than optimal.
Turbulence – Appreciate you doing the HRM numbers too. Though am wondering whether it considered the prizemoney like ICM does, otherwise it seems like 2 very different answers.
Results coming in next post…
January 26, 2015
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Ok, so I eventually make the call, & BB also calls the SB shove, so we now have;
UTG Villain 77; Hero AJo; BB 99
Flop A34, Turn T, River 2
Villain is out in 4th & I ladder up to $250 (from $150).
I triple up. Then take the blinds next couple of hands (which are now 25/50K) with TT & AQo.
Shortly after BB gets in a hand with Chip Leader which very uncharacteristically tilts him. Next hand, CL shoves & BB calls, obviously tilted with 95s, CL shows JJ.
Unfortunately BB rivers a gut-shot straight, so I was a mere 4-outer from laddering up again to $480.(& CL & I would’ve split 1st & 2nd money).
I’m now up to 320K, CL around 600K, he shoves, I call with TT, CL shows 33.
3 on the turn means GG me, so again, very close to another double up which would’ve given me 1/2 the chips in play.
So I end up taking the 3rd money.
Thanks again for your input guys, very much appreciated.
July 7, 2012
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astro247 said
Turbulence – Appreciate you doing the HRM numbers too. Though am wondering whether it considered the prizemoney like ICM does, otherwise it seems like 2 very different answers.
Results coming in next post…
I put the prize money in the calculation and did an ICM calc not chip EV, HRM can do both and a lot more. Its possible I got something wrong as I am in the early days of using HRM but i went over it several times. I only only used the basic hand function as given the stack sizes there is nothing to consider other than Push / Fold / Call.
anyway, well played and nice result!
June 2, 2013
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I dont think I can fold AJo on SB in the game here; You have 45k after paying SB?
Also, if BB is any good he will call with any two cards, he only have to pay one bb to make the call.
I think you should check your shoving range, why did you get this short? You said that you have “Rock-like image, had given a few walks & not played many FT pots”, maybe you should shove wider, everyone is short, including CL.
January 26, 2015
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Hi almo,
Totally agree re needing to shove wider. That’s one of my goals of 2017 to play more aggressive with opening more hands, 3-betting, & aiming to win big pots with flushes, straights, turn & river bluffs if neccessary etc. I’ve finally realised you don’t build big enough stacks to consistently FT (& do some damage once there) if you’re waiting to hit TPTK & then not get paid off, or drawn out on.
I actually became short-stacked this time because of a “mistake” I made on the bubble with 66 in EP. As I pushed my chips to go all-in, I said call at the same time. CL noticed it & had it ruled as just a call. Play folds to CL who looks at his cards for the first time & insta-shoves. I’m pretty good mates with him & I know he would only do that with a very strong hand because it would knock me out. I tank-fold & he shows AA. Very next hand, he gets AA again & knocks out the bubble-boy & I’m in the money.
My image as a rock does have its advantages, last night made 2 different 3-bets in LP with 44 vs habitual light opener & a call. Both times when Ace hits the flop & it checked to me, I bet & took down the pot. Both players in each pot commented that I only bet when I have it, one caller saying you’ve got me outkicked ;-).
Thanks again everyone at #TPENation, may you all run as hot as the sun in 2017!! 
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