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(0 votes) 
June 1, 2012
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FT $4 Rebuy on 888.
8 players left.
At least 3 players are pretty bad.
Villian just lost a huge pot 2 hands before this after open shoving 44 with 29bbs from HJ into 4 players including 2 big stacks…
Payouts as follows:
$69 $104 $139 $174 $208 $261 $313 $522 $870
Pacific No Limit Hold'em Tournament - 6000/12,000 Blinds 1k Ante - 8 players - TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter BTN: t371622 SB: t316074 BB: t180617 UTG: t346846 UTG+1: t158461 Hero (MP1): t218380 MP2: t220008 CO: t625992 Pre Flop: (t0) Hero is MP1 with
J
J
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t157261 (all in,)
Hero?
December 24, 2013
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I don't know how to do icm by hand, but this spot appears to be high enough that you should be calling, and icm cutoffs to fold are somewhere lower.
if overcall ranges are QQ+/AK (sometimes will be wider than this depending on players and situations, and bb will be wider than hijack), that's 34 combos or 2.60% of hands. You have 5 more people left to act, so that means there's a 13.0% chance you run into a better hand from those behind you. to reiterate, this means that each person individually has a 2.6% chance of having QQ+/AK and will overcall if you go all in as well. 2.6% x 5 remaining players is 13%.
utg+1 is probably not shoving absolutely correctly, but it's not hard stuff to know or stumble into while this shallow. based on him shoving 44 for 29bb in the co, id say he at least knows hands are profitable to shove. he shouldnt just outright shove 29bb in an open, but i can understand how that would happen. if the blinds are active 3betters, and he doesnt want to 4b, then shove i guess. but that's not what he should be doing because he's just risking a ton for 1.5-2.5bb where he could r/f or r/4b rip.
that said, he's probably shoving like all pairs, a ton of Ax, KTs+, KJo+. Maybe he raise/calls AA-KK and AK. maybe he doesn't. taking them out of his shove range only makes our hand stronger. If you put that range against your hand, you're a clear favorite. This is because of all the underpairs in his range, 6 combos of each, all 20ish% to your hand.
June 3, 2012
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I could be a nit, but im folding here.
September 5, 2013
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call: JJ+, AQs+ and AK
June 3, 2012
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Liverpool015 said:
I could be a nit, but im folding here.
Thought it was 33. Im getting JJ in here
April 23, 2014
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I did ICM calcs on the hand and this is what I figured:
Assuming villain is titling at least a little and assuming he is willing to shove w/ 29bb holding 44 in CO, and now with about 13 bigs for the purposes of ICM I put his range at 22+, QJs+, KTs+, KJo+, A2s, ATo+.
Hero with JJ, 64% against his range.
If Fold your prize pool equity ($Equity, not Chip Equity) is 283.13
If Call your prize pool equity is 298.82
So in a vacuum (which you are not) and you somehow KNEW you would be 2 handed with villain, its an easy call based on $equity.
Warning, I am not at all sure about what is written next and would like input on whether it is correct or not…
Based on calcs from above post there is a 13% chance that someone behind you wakes up with QQ+, AKo+ at which point you are 30% against the table. So after your shove you are 64% to win but considering the % of the time that one of the players left to act wakes up with a hand and at least calls you, you are really at about 55%. 64% -(13%* .70(lose% vs these 2 ranges)). If someone does call you are actually at about 30%. The 55% represents the the villain, you and the % of players acting behind you.
This is the first time I have tried to include the yet to act players and thier ranges and stacks in an ICM “shove or fold” calculation for $EV so please someone chime in and tell me if this is completely wrong but I think it would look something like this:
(.87((.64*374.07)+(.36*165.04)))+(.13((.3*474.63)+(.7*0)))
or 278.13
SO: All together, Fold $EV 283.13 / Shove $EV 278.13. With so many players left to act, and all but one having you covered, ICM says fold.
Now that seems crazy and I suspect I would Jam, but that is what I get.
Hopefully someone with more expierence will confirm or butcher my ICM assessment
TheDukeVA
December 24, 2013
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I always seem to catch these interesting discussions as I'ma bout to leave or have arrived to a lot of work. I have only briefly glanced at your icm calculation with players left to act, but I wanted to chime in and say that I wouldn't be surprised at all if you were “supposed to” fold JJ here, even with a wide range. I thought at first that seemed crazy, but it definitely makes sense abstractly. taking his chips doesn't give you as much of an increased chance to making more money as losing chips does to hurt you and prevent you from making more money. i think it's like..you can cruise a final table with 15bb and get heads up. it happens. stacks combine. i am definitely not advocating playing rock tight passive at a final table, but you're probably supposed to avoid coinflips habitually too hah. it's the nature of the function of tournament poker. we arbitrarily put more weight at the top. the second derivative is always positive, so the growth is always bigger than the growth before. while you can't realize your icm-based equity ever without a chop taking place, it's still pretty demanding. idk. i'm torn.
June 1, 2012
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I’ll add this to my original post.
I time banked for a few seconds to double check the stacks left to act & then I did call but didn’t shove.
I decided to call instead of shove because the fold equity to the players left to act by my putting in the extra few bbs wouldn’t have changed much IMO. However if by some small chance there was a cooler & 2 others got it all in, I could have the option of folding and prob make a few pay jumps.
I’m not calling & folding if one player left to act shoves, but seeing as most players left didn’t seem to have any idea about ICM I figure it was worth leaving my options open.
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