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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy ICM kind of spot

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ICM kind of spot

Cass

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October 15, 2015 - 1:49 pm

Hi guys im wondering if we can ever justify folding 76s here preflop, I dont think I can get away postflop with this stacks.

PokerStars Hand #142231319119: Tournament #1342803394, $2.50+$0.25 USD Hold’em No Limit – Level XXVIII (4000/8000) – 2015/10/15 0:00:18 ART [2015/10/14 23:00:18 ET]
Table ‘1342803394 48’ 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: acwr2611 (169614 in chips)
Seat 2: HavaianasBRR (105155 in chips)
Seat 3: Jaspperzinhu (391610 in chips)
Seat 4: ProveYoSkill (377760 in chips)
Seat 6: Tuliocg (184689 in chips)
Seat 7: gonfab (402049 in chips)
Seat 8: rmpkrbr (134383 in chips)
Seat 9: PichooARG (295740 in chips)
All players have agreed to skip the break. Game resuming.
acwr2611: posts the ante 800
HavaianasBRR: posts the ante 800
Jaspperzinhu: posts the ante 800
ProveYoSkill: posts the ante 800
Tuliocg: posts the ante 800
gonfab: posts the ante 800
rmpkrbr: posts the ante 800
PichooARG: posts the ante 800
rmpkrbr: posts small blind 4000
PichooARG: posts big blind 8000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PichooARG [7h 6h]
acwr2611: folds
HavaianasBRR: folds
Jaspperzinhu: raises 9360 to 17360
ProveYoSkill: folds
Tuliocg: folds
gonfab: folds
rmpkrbr: folds
PichooARG: calls 9360
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 600280 | Rake 0
Board [2h 4h 5h 2d 3s]
Seat 1: acwr2611 folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 2: HavaianasBRR folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 3: Jaspperzinhu showed [Qh Jh] and won (600280) with a flush, Queen high
Seat 4: ProveYoSkill folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 6: Tuliocg folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 7: gonfab (button) folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 8: rmpkrbr (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: PichooARG (big blind) showed [7h 6h] and lost with a flush, Seven high

I tighten up as a core my defence here overall as I should but in game I thought 76s it was a call on the BB, maybe it is, maybe im just being result oriented.

This is the final table of a $2,75 1.5k GTD on stars.

So the question is can we justify folding pre?

I would like to hear from someone else… thanks

Foucault

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October 15, 2015 - 2:32 pm

Nope.

Cass

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October 15, 2015 - 4:31 pm

How big of an edge if its not ridiculous do you think that would require to pass this spot? there are a couple of re-steal stacks,

MP is risking 17360 to win 18.400 (pot before OR), he needs to succed ~ %48.5 to profit with opening any two

Assuming as a default everyone its defending tight somehow %9 rmpkbr, %12 tuliocg, proveyoskill %15, BTN %20…, we should defend ~ %26.4 for avoiding MP profit with any two, 76s is in that, with icm we can get away with less I guess… I dont have any software right now to use it as guideline, how much we give up if we fold?

Foucault

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October 15, 2015 - 5:05 pm

I don’t think naive indifference is the best lens for analyzing this. What we really care about are three factors:

1. Your equity vs Villain’s range. 76s does well in this regard.

2. Your ability to realize that equity, compared to the pot odds you’re getting. 76s is good at this too.

3. The likelihood that you’ll get stacked or lose a big pot. This last is relevant because of ICM. The fact that you need to be cautious hurts your ability to realize equity. However, 76s is significantly better than the average hand for knowing where it stands and not ending up in spots where it either folds away a lot of equity or puts a lot of money in very bad.

We can’t see all of the action, but it seems like you got an especially unlucky combination of flop and opponent hole cards. If you’d called with 99 and flopped set under set, would you be asking if you should have folded pre-flop?

Cass

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October 15, 2015 - 8:25 pm

Foucault said
I don’t think naive indifference is the best lens for analyzing this. What we really care about are three factors:

1. Your equity vs Villain’s range. 76s does well in this regard.

2. Your ability to realize that equity, compared to the pot odds you’re getting. 76s is good at this too.

3. The likelihood that you’ll get stacked or lose a big pot. This last is relevant because of ICM. The fact that you need to be cautious hurts your ability to realize equity. However, 76s is significantly better than the average hand for knowing where it stands and not ending up in spots where it either folds away a lot of equity or puts a lot of money in very bad.

We can’t see all of the action, but it seems like you got an especially unlucky combination of flop and opponent hole cards. If you’d called with 99 and flopped set under set, would you be asking if you should have folded pre-flop?

Its like u said but at this scenario I enfatize on the 3rd one, thats why I think its relevant the % that I ought defend, since I cant play back too much postflop, Im more concern of MP dont having a profitable OR w/ any two than anything else (with my best candidates), not defending by calling w/ 76s its seems to be a bit extreme… thanks

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