This is from a $1500 GTD on Playnow.com a network in Canada. $24 buy.

We’re final 3 with payouts of $480/$310/$210

Final table was 10 handed and 2 players were knocked out reasonably early putting us ITM.  

After that very slow… When 6 handed the CL of this hand elmiminated 2 players at once.  And now we’re 3 handed.

I’ll give stats.  Basically Villain had opened up a bit w his stack…  Unfortunately HH converter won’t work so I’ll do my best.

Blinds 750/1500/150

Villain BTN (81,512) 

Hero SB (33,406)

XYZ BB (20,182) – Not all that relevant this hand other than ICM considerations.

Preflop

V raises to 5,700 – Now I dont’ make anything of this raise sizing since he had been opening big earlier.  Might make his range wider if nothing else.  Earlier, I did see him open this sizing and fold to a 3b jam.

Stats on Villain – 110 hands – 32/16/5.6 BTN Steal-33 Flop fold to CB-33

Hero – Reraises to 11,099 ( So I 3b small planning to obv call.  If he does call here I’m jamming pretty much 100% of flops.  I understand a jam here would be fine.  Or would it w ICM? )

Villain calls.

Flop (24,148) – 4 K 2  So we catch a pretty good flop here.  

Hero – 22,157

Villain – 70,413

Hero – Jams 22,157

Any problems here?  I gave the hero a range of 88+, A9o+, K10o+, JTs, Q10s+, K9s+, A8s+.  We might be able to take out at least some AA KK QQ JJ as I think he jams a chunk of those.  Maybe 1010 too?  Anyways…

After some Flopzilla work it looks like if he calls, PP below TP+ (88-QQ) thats 49.1% of his range.  So when we jam 22,157 to win 46,305.  We need him to fold 51%.  We see he’s calling 49.1% so thats whatever.  But I also think w my 3b so small he could probably be wider. Which would make it fine.  Also assumes he’s calling all his 88’s 99’s which he may, or may not.  I think he probably does.

I guess the question is how we consider ICM.  I see in ICMizer2 we are -1.08.  So that’s pretty bad…

Any thoughts or comments are appreciated.  Thanks guys/gals!