Thank you Sen for your very long and nice post. 

I really have nothing more to add than you have very nice points in your answer.
So the basic answer might be, it depends on the situation. 

I will take all this with me and might make more deals in the future and put my ego and “play to win” mentality aside. We are here to make money and if dealing can make you more money in the long run that might be the way to go. 

Very nice done to manage top 10 on .fr LB as well! gz!

Would love to hear some more input from more people 🙂

Thank you Andrew.

This was a $13.50 KO tournament ($2.5 for each KO but that is irrelevant to the deal question)

I don’t think I am a great heads up player in any way, but I felt I was a better player in general than the one I ended heads up with. It’s just a general read I did have at the table, but had no real evidence such as Sharkscope or Tournament Shark to back it up with as he wasn’t OPT-in.

This was a stars tournament and there a first place in many cases can be significant to the buy in, just not huge in this case. Not that I complain about a ~100 times to the buy-in, in payouts.

Let’s add some math. (There is probably some fancy equation you can use for all this, but I’m getting older and forgot everything I did learn in school so I just put it in here as structured as I can)

$1,688.78 (1689) for 1st

$1,219.40 (1219) for 2nd

$1,499 offered for me (asked for more than ICM) and $1409 offered for my opponent. (1499-1409=90)

The total pricepool for 1st and 2nd was $2908 (1689+1219), the difference between 1st and 2nd was 1689-1219 = 470

It means that $470 (the difference between 1st and 2nd) = 16,16% (470/2908) of the total price money left to play for.

So with the difference in the deal and first place money 1689-1499 = 190
The difference between 2nd price and deal 1219-1499 = -280

There is 3 scenarios. 

1 = deal, 2 = No deal, I win, 3 = No deal, I loose. 

Scenario 1.

With the deal I give up the chance to win an extra 470, but secure 280 variance free, the difference between deal and finish 2nd (1499-1219=280). 280/2908 = 9,62% of price pool that is left. 

Scenario 2. 
When I win, I win 470, that is 190 more than the deal gives. (470-280=190). 190/2908 = 6,5% of the price pool left to play for

Scenario 3. 
I get 1219, I loose 280 compared to the deal (1499-1219=280). I loose 470 compared to a win.

Now, how much of a edge, and how can we measure that, to fast in a deal situation estimate if our edge is big enough, and that with variance counted for we should say no to a deal and go for the win?

Hope all this makes sense and I greatly appreciate any further input.

Oh also, to add. The player I ended heads up with asked for a deal 4 handed. I was chipleader then he was 2nd in chips, the other 2 wanted a deal but I turned it down. Then first hand we got heads up to, he asked again. 

And as you say Joel, I don’t initiate a deal unless we are even and I feel or know that the other player is great at heads up. As you say, I don’t want to give away weakness by starting to discuss deal.