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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy I think this was correct fold!!

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I think this was correct fold!!

daveyt86

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January 3, 2013 - 12:12 pm

Im pretty sure im beat, the only hand i beat is AK but does he 4-bet that this early?

Poker Stars $20+$2 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t10/t20 Blinds – 9 players – View hand 2050696
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

BB: t3000 150 BBs
UTG: t3000 150 BBs
UTG+1: t3000 150 BBs
UTG+2: t2840 142 BBs
MP1: t3030 151.50 BBs
MP2: t3050 152.50 BBs
CO: t3170 158.50 BBs
Hero (BTN): t2970 148.50 BBs
SB: t2980 149 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN with Q of clubs Q of hearts
UTG raises to t40, UTG+1 calls t40, 4 folds, Hero raises to t145, 2 folds, UTG raises to t469, 1 fold, Hero calls t324

Flop: (t1008) Q of diamonds 8 of clubs K of spades (2 players)
UTG bets t520, Hero calls t520

Turn: (t2048) A of clubs (2 players)
UTG bets t1060

Final Pot: t2048

Nqon

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January 3, 2013 - 12:22 pm

Im never folding. Im raising that flop AI, or as played shoving over turn. I would have to have long history with villian and know him very well to consider folding, and even if I knew his range was AK AA KK here i still probably get it in, id rather get coolered a couple of times than miss value.

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jjpregler

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January 3, 2013 - 12:46 pm

That's tough. Can you see JJ betting the turn here?

If we do a distribution of QQ+ and AK we have:

0 distributions of QQ

3 distributions of KK

3 distributions of AA

9 distributions of AK

Therefore he is 50% more likely to have AK here than AA or KK.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: QdKs8cAc

UTG	44.55%		{ QQ+, AKs, AKo }
BU	55.45%		{ QhQc }

marc alioto

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January 3, 2013 - 12:50 pm

I need a very sick read to fold this in a 20$ buy in. I see your thought process, but we also need to account for the occasional spew fish that plays poker. Not gonna lie, the more i look at this hand, the more I am thinking we are beat. I agree with Nqon, raise get it in on the flop. If you use a HUD and notice he is running like 6/5/1% (nitty numbers) over 1k hands we could debate a fold but readless in a 20$ there is no possible way we could fold.

Carlos

Atlanta, Ga

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January 3, 2013 - 1:10 pm

+1 for having to raise that flop. You can probably stack AK and AA there. If you get it in and he has KK+, then it’s a standard cooler.

As played, I may find a fold here with 100bbs behind depending on what his 4bet stats look like. Also, if he is a reg, he may 4bet you a little lighter since you raised from the button. I probably fold to an unknown with nitty stats. The utg mr and over 3x 3bet does look a lot like KK+. They shove AK there a lot of times.

Nqon

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January 3, 2013 - 1:37 pm

You will never have a 4-bet stat thats in any way relevant on anyone here.

Edit: I see you realized that and corrected it while I was posting 🙂

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