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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy I think I just found my BIGGEST Lea…

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I think I just found my BIGGEST Leak. Ride along and feel my pain?

ltcolumbo

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November 24, 2014 - 11:09 am

I am playing in the bi-annual big MTT here in town, $220 buyin 90 runners. $20k starting chips

After having my AA run into a set of tens, I was at $17k, but worked it slowly and surely to $28k when this occurs. (a tigher player had check raised the turn, which I called. not the same as the villian below)

200/400/50 level

Laggy cash game player raises from MP to 1000, I look at AA in SB and make it 2200. I had 3 bet him 3 times now and taken down all the hand with a post flop bet on the flop or turn. He was some of the reason I could run my $17k back to $28k…

He calls the 3-bet as usual (pot is 5400). Flop is very dry 834 rainbow. He checks and I assume if I bet he folds, so I check behind. I am hoping now to get turn and river value out of my aces. Turn is a K and he checks. I bet out 2k (under 1/2) and he check raises to $6k. I now figure him for K and I under rep'd my hand, so I call (relatively quickly).

(do you call here with AA? You start with $28k & he has $50k. You are calling $4k more into a pot of $13k.)

Bit pot of $17k now.

River is a J and he bets out $8k (just about 1/2 pot). I make a crying call to see 34s (2 pair). In retrospect, I should put him on 88 here, but I still want to make that turn call?

Can anyone find a river fold here? IF I fold that river, I only lose about $8k and I am back at $20k starting stack when the level changes to 300/600/75.

chaos

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November 24, 2014 - 11:41 am

I think he can play AK, KK, 88 that way with 88 being possible but unlikely. I don't think you “should” have put him in 88 in there, I think you put him in some sort of hand and weren't sure your aces were beat, so you lost the minimum by just calling.

I don't think you can find a fold there as there's a significant amount of time where he's doing that with AK which is more likely than 88 or KK.

Imagining he has 34s is just out of the realm of what I would put on his range so I'd eaten that. I still think you lost the minimum in that spot.

I think is mostly a psicological thing, as if you've had AK rather than AA you'd probably end up in the same situation or worse. Sometimes I get the feeling since our selective memory only remembers the times we lose with aces, when we DO get them we are more afraid than we should.

I mean, if you're going to fold aces in that board you may as well not play them in the first time as there're few boards that are better for aces.

Foucault

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November 24, 2014 - 12:13 pm

Something's off here because you say you are in SB then talk about checking behind him on the flop. If you are OOP I think your 3B is a bit too small. From the way you describe him it sounds like he was calling a lot of 3bs so I don't think there's any reason to use such small sizing against him with any hand. Why do you assume he's folding to a flop bet? Can't he have 99 or TT or 87s or 77 etc?

ltcolumbo

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November 25, 2014 - 7:14 pm

thanks for the comments chaos, villian said the same thing at break.

Foucault, I think you are right, I was the button.

The 3betting at the table was so rare, I think I compensated for a problem I didnt have, could have raised bigger.

He was the type of player that would lead with TT/99/77 here. (that was my read after 3 hours, watching carefully.)

folding_aces_pre_yo

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November 25, 2014 - 7:45 pm

Foucault said:

Something's off here because you say you are in SB then talk about checking behind him on the flop. If you are OOP I think your 3B is a bit too small. From the way you describe him it sounds like he was calling a lot of 3bs so I don't think there's any reason to use such small sizing against him with any hand. Why do you assume he's folding to a flop bet? Can't he have 99 or TT or 87s or 77 etc?

I was thinking the exact same thing here , nice post btw andrew.

If you know it's very likely villian is going to r/c a 3-bet pre (which they have done on 3 occasions) why not make it larger like 3.5k?

BET FLOP, you should have a value target? my value target will be hands like 7787//99/TT , you should then re-evaluate on future street depending on the action that takes place and the texture of the board.

river is a call, it's unlikely v has monsters in their range given that they checked back flop , once v raises your hand on the turn i think it's unlikely they'll be doing this with a hand like KQ/KJ , not to sure about AK , i think many players will just flat turn with these hands as they would want want to keep your range wide/keep worse in.

against some opponents i'd cry fold river because i just don't think we're beating much , what sorta hands will v raise turn with and then lead out river? V could quite possibly check back flop with top set , so yeah his line seems strong. however given that you guys have been involved in a few pots , they may very well decide to play back at you and over rep their hand which means your AA is likely going to be ahead of their value betting range.

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