June 26, 2016
Hey guys
I have a hand for u. Flop no question to call but on this turn card he shut down his action a lot, don’t he? It’s close to 50/50 with my hand against his range but range vs range I’m ahead here, so what we do here? PSR matters alot here i would say.
Thanks for the answers and have a good one!
Cheers Marco
MTT 22$ Pokerstars Blinds 300/600 Ante 75 NL Holdem 9 handed
Hero BB 21BB K8
Villain MP 28BB
Villain raise to 2BB Hero call
(5.63BB) Flop T58 Hero checks MP bets 2.81BB Hero calls
(11.25BB) Turn Hero checks MP bets 5.63BB Hero fold
February 8, 2017
It’s kind of relevant what the turn card is. Assuming its a total blank like 2h I think you probably need to fold, unless villain seems maniacal. If villain had raised CO or BUT calling down seems more reasonable.
At 21bb I might just check-shove this flop. When called you have >20% equity against everything other than sets, KK, A8 and T8, and you’ll fold out a lot of 2 over hands that have ~25% equity.
February 8, 2017
5 is an interesting card in that it allows villain to barrel some hands that picked up a flush draw, which may improve calling slightly. That being said, a card that strengthens your range significantly is a really bad one for villain to barrel (you have wayyyy more 5s in your range than villain), so I think folding is still the play here.
I would be very interested to hear from more experienced players as these BB defend spots come up all the time, and you’re still relatively high up in your range with K8.
One tactic which I’ve been experimenting with is donking turn when middle or bottom card pairs. Doubtful it’s a good approach here because you’re risking a lot of your stack to turn a relatively good hand into a bluff, but something to consider for deeper stacked spots, especially if you have a hand that wants to semi-bluff.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
I did some CREV/equilibrium analysis on this, and I think people are really underestimating how strong Hero’s hand is. I tried this with looser ranges (which I think are more correct) and tighter ranges (which may more closely resemble those of one or both of the players in this hand).
Even with a tighter opening range for Villain (15%, AA-22,AKs-A9s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,AKo-ATo,KQo-KJo), this is a pure call on both flop and turn. The kinds of hands Hero folds on the turn are whiffed overs/gutters that did not turn flush draws. Weaker 8s are indifferent between calling and folding, but J8 – A8 strictly prefer calling.
This isn’t a good check-raise on the flop, either. It’s not in good shape against calling ranges, and holding a K and a BDFD makes you care less about giving free cards.
Against a wider opening range, weaker Ts want to check-raise (with the intention of getting it in), but stronger ones don’t mind calling giving the free card to potentially dominated overcards.
But in neither case do you benefit from check-raising flop. The risk/reward ratio just isn’t right. I understand the desire to make your life easier by ending the hand on the flop, but you must recognize that you are also making your opponent’s life easier by helping him play correctly – he mostly just folds when he’s behind and calls when he’s ahead or drawing well. Weaker 8s with backdoor straight draws are indifferent between raising and calling, but K8 strictly calls against either range.
Against either range, the 5 is a very good card for the OOP player, and in fact against the wider range the CREV equilibrium has BB donking for half pot with half of his range on the turn! This is because MP has basically no 5s, even with his wider range, and BB has plenty of them. That advantage enables you to donk other sorts of hands for other reasons as well.
February 8, 2017
I think my temptation to check-raise this flop is a remnant from when I first started playing, and indicative of a big leak in my short-stack play post-flop. Back in the ~2009 era I developed what may be a pretty odd strategy of trying to maximize fold equity when I had decent but vulnerable showdown value and roughly this stack size . It may have been good variance or just the different nature of play in that era, but it seemed quite effective. I think it got more folds than it would today because everybody was c-betting so frequently, but it also wouldn’t be uncommon (at least at micro/low stakes) to get called by a hand like 98s on this board and be in great shape. Kinda sad to think that my approach to spots like this still has at least one foot in 2009.
Another leak that spots like this highlight in my game is more mental game related. Not usually quite this deep, but especially around the 16-17bb mark I am probably too willing to gamble and tend to adopt a ‘double or bust’ mentality. My higher thinking tends to shut down when I flop equity, especially after defending the BB. Rather than applying my normal thinking about ranges and considering all my options, I’ve developed the bad habit of thinking “It can’t be that bad to get it in here,” which is obviously a pretty shameful approach to take as a professional MTT grinder.
A good reminder that there are many important areas of my game that still need a LOT of work. I was already extremely happy with my decision to finally join TPE, but getting called out by my favorite podcaster is an invaluable wake up call. Thank you good sir!
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
I think a lot of the important stuff has been covered, but it’s definitely worth noting that Kd8d in this spot is valuable for the specific reason that it unblocks all of villain’s most likely bluffs – QJ, J9, Q9, 76, and spades – so we should give fairly strong consideration to including it in our turn calling range ahead of almost all our other 8x hands. It might not seem like it, but there’s a massive difference between Kd8d and Js8d here, even though both should be in our range for making it to the turn.
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