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HUUUUGGGE Shoveriver when we only lose to 2 hands (which he shouldnt have!)
mategott
Grinding Micros
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May 2, 2013 - 1:53 pm
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Fi has played pretty fish. Its pretty early in a Swedish Championship-tournament.
I have played alot of pots, but havnt got any resistens. So i just keep attacking.  

Its hard to see him have AA or A9, but when he makes this insane play im confused and dont really know what to do.

Thoughts?

 

Stoffe_777 (UTG): t16347 272.45 BBs
BlackQueen (UTG+1): t12370 206.17 BBs
Hero (MP): t16805 280.08 BBs
DamnDealDone (CO): t13785 229.75 BBs
Edd0r (BTN): t21898 364.97 BBs
SMNieezz (SB): t14415 240.25 BBs
festen x (BB): t9695 161.58 BBs

Pre Flop: (t90) Hero is MP with 9 of clubs 8 of clubs
2 folds, Hero raises to t120, 3 folds, festen x calls t60

Flop: (t270) 9 of hearts A of diamonds 8 of spades (2 players)
festen x checks, Hero bets t120, festen x calls t120

Turn: (t510) 9 of diamonds (2 players)
festen x checks, Hero bets t300, festen x calls t300

River: (t1110) 8 of diamonds (2 players)
festen x bets t9155 all in, Hero folds

kingten102
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May 2, 2013 - 2:40 pm
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for future posts, I think we all prefer not to see the results.  We see that you folded to his river shove, in your post.

 

He almost never has AA, or A9 here when he makes this play.

 

He can credibly rep the back door flush as played.  and you crush that hand.

 

with your aggro image, I am NEVER folding in this spot w/o a serious, previous read that he overshoves, the nuts.

The Move
Guppy
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May 2, 2013 - 3:14 pm
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I am never folding here either.  If he has one of those 2 hands -gg. 

The Move
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May 2, 2013 - 3:17 pm
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And, it looks like you can call and still have 120BB if he does happen to have it

mategott
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May 2, 2013 - 3:29 pm
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thanks for input, i will not show results next time.

Foucault

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May 3, 2013 - 9:16 am
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The question is not “how often does he have AA or A9?” The question is how often does he have less than 9s full. If we assume he would do this with an overfull and never with less than a 9, then it's an easy fold. Even if he has the bigger hands just 6% of the time, this is a losing call because when you're right you chop a pot that is quite small relative to the amount you risk when you're wrong.

You can practically ignore the money already in the pot and ask yourself whether he's more likely to do this with A9+ or with less than a 9. If it's the former, fold. If it's the latter, call. 

Important lesson: just because the nuts is unlikely doesn't mean you can call. 

danrose29
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May 4, 2013 - 5:26 am
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Im not experienced live tournament player or good mtt player so maybe i shouldnt comment lol but id fold here,

hes flatting very deep out of bb i think he can have aa or a9 for sure, he may flat aa for deception or a9 defend obv.

When he shoves river hes risking huge amount of chips to win  little so why would he do it if he doesnt have monster?

Ive played quite a lot of live cash and in this spot in cash if shoewdown they near always seem to have monster.

Id fold but obv i could be wrong.

CCuster 911
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May 4, 2013 - 5:44 pm
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Foucault said:

The question is not “how often does he have AA or A9?” The question is how often does he have less than 9s full. If we assume he would do this with an overfull and never with less than a 9, then it's an easy fold. Even if he has the bigger hands just 6% of the time, this is a losing call because when you're right you chop a pot that is quite small relative to the amount you risk when you're wrong.

You can practically ignore the money already in the pot and ask yourself whether he's more likely to do this with A9+ or with less than a 9. If it's the former, fold. If it's the latter, call. 

Important lesson: just because the nuts is unlikely doesn't mean you can call. 

This is 100% correct.

 

A lot of player make the mistake of snap calling here(sometimes calling isnt a mistake but snap calling almsot alwyas is unless we have a drooler).  The bet is humongous, and you have to ask, what hands can villain actually have?  Ya up until the river shove he can have some backdoor flush draws, but VERY FEW players are shoving river with a backdoor flush, and even less are shoving river with a naked 9.  This leads him with basically boats only(I assume if he wanted to bluff he would do so not overshoving 8 times the pot, this is a spot where HE THINKS he is valueing, almsot 100%).

 

So how many boats do we beat?

 

Well we lose to AA and A9.  we chop 98, and we beat 88/96/66.  First I think we can take 66 out of his range.  Its not very likely he peeled two streets with that(although is a hand that if he did, a donk leads isnt a bad play, shoving is still lol)

 

So that leaves with with AA/A9 that we lose to, and 88/96 that we beat.  There are 3 combos of AA, 3 combos of a9, 1 combo of 88, and 3 combos of 96.  To sum up that is 6 combos we lose to and 4 combos we beat. 

 

Now it comes down to based off all previous action which is most likely.  AA is either in his range or its not, a lto fo people are 3 betting AA 100% of the time here, some people know that it can be best sometimes to just flat, esepcially if MP can be wide, or BB has a very tight image.  A9 is a standard hand to flat here, 88 is also standard to flat, 96 can be flatted especially if its suited.  Which leaves only 1 combo, which is 96ss.  So now we have 6 combos we lose to and 2 combos we beat.

 

its starting to look liek less of a call, even if you are able to take out all AA from his range, he still has 3 combos(a9) that we lose to and only 2 combos we beat.

 

This looks like a fold, without more information on villain.

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