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Huge bluff ITM Carbon OPS 40k
Douggyfr3sh
High Stakes Shark
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September 23, 2014 - 7:07 pm
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Hey All, 

 

This hand happened a few days ago in the Carbon OPS 215 40k.  We are 4th in chips w/ 21 remaining.  Villain in this hand I had 150 hands on and he was 3betting about 10%.  Don't know a whole lot else about him.  I was suuper active at this table and probably opened 5 of the last 8-9 hands. 

 

Carbon MTT blinds 1500/3000 ante 300 

 We are 7 handed

UTG Folds 

UTG + 1 Hero Aheart6heart Opens 6,000 

Fold 

Fold 

Fold 

SB 3bets to 14,550 

Fold 

Hero Calls 

 

I'm getting great pot odds in position to call the 3bet. 

 

Flop: (34,200) 5spade2diamondJheart

 

Villain (71k) Checks 

Hero (109k) Checks 

 

A bet could be argued here but I don't think its absolutely necessary.  

 

Turn (34,200) 5heart

 

Villain Bets 17,100 

 

If I call here, the pot is 68k on river and Villain has 54k behind. 

Hero: Shoves 109k 

 

I think this is a great bluff spot.  V can be 3betting wide, especially with how active I've been.  If He is bet/folding AK,AQ (24 combos) and bet/calling JJ+ (21 combos) it seems like a slam dunk Jam.  We have some equity against most of his calling range and he folds often enough assuming he is capable of stabbing here.  Thoughts??

Foucault

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September 23, 2014 - 11:18 pm
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Good as long as you don’t think his flop check is super-suspicious. Calling and bluffing river is also an option for getting him to fold the same hands, doubt he check-calls too much unimproved with AK/AQ, and may save you some money if he was trapping. That assumes he won’t bluff river too often, though.

Douggyfr3sh
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September 25, 2014 - 12:18 am
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Thanks for the reply Andrew, In game I didn't find his flop check suspicious.  Villain had a 33% cbet although it was only over 150 total hands.  I also think calling turn/shoving river is an OK option, but we don't know much about villain and I'm inclined to say that if he is bluffing turn with AK/AQ setting up this kind of SPR on river then there is a reasonable chance he can be capable of jamming all rivers, with his value and bluff range.

jacobsharktank
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September 26, 2014 - 8:42 am
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prefacing with haven’t slept yet this evening…was on my way to bed around 6am and the cats broke some glass and i had to clean it up.

it heavily depends on his 3b range obviously
say like (88+, AJ+, JTs, QJs, A2s) (8%) (minus your hand and the flop thats 78 combos) just throwing hands out, really tired and realizing i’m not giving this range much thought. what’s bb’s stack?

I intuitively like jamming here. his cbets a bit low, but you don’t have many spots for him to cbet probably with that many hands/. 7 handed, and you being really active, I think he’d 3b/c pairs like that feeling you’d rip with exactly the type of hand you have. had he shown down (or do you have a guess on his range of any of these spots) anything where he’s 3b light EP openers?

if he has that range, he folds AQ/AK, A2s, i feel like he’d cbet QQ+ and don’t want to give him those hands, like at he very least take some of those combos out. if he bet/calls (AJ, TT+, JT-KQs) and bet/folds the rest that’s 39:39 and again feels slam dunky. this changes really by quite a bit if he’d check 88-TT

fwiw i liked the jam before i saw your explanation for it/andrew’s response. i really should have given this more thought before reading the responses though.

youre giving him 2.27 to 1, and while i don’t want to be lazy about it, the only hands that absolutely suck are A5s (2 combos) and JJ (3 combos and AA (3 combos) and if his cbet is truly that low, i think he’d cbet JJ even though he doesn’t have a lot of targets. so yea 20-30% equity when called, folds 30-50% of his hands, sounds good to me.

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