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How to play whiffed AKs with low SPR?
packallama
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May 12, 2013 - 7:17 pm
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Merge - $200+$15|<> NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (MP+1): 20,382
CO: 7,715
BTN: 35,350
SB: 10,929
BB: 5,747
UTG: 7,230 (VPIP: 14.49, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 12.90, Hands: 70)
UTG+1: 24,345 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 12.12, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 69)
UTG+2: 3,153
MP: 13,712

9 players post ante of 50, SB posts SB 250, BB posts BB 500

Pre Flop: (pot: 1,200) Hero has  Kdiamond Adiamond 

[color=red]UTG raises to 1,500[/color], UTG+1 calls 1,500, fold, fold, [color=red]Hero raises to 4,125[/color], fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls 2,625

Flop: (10,950, 2 players)  8heart Qheart 9diamond 
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

Turn: (10,950, 2 players)  6club 
[color=red]UTG+1 bets 1,500[/color], Hero calls 1,500

River: (13,950, 2 players)  7club 
UTG+1 checks, [color=red]Hero ??? [/color]
 

A tight and profitable player 3xed UTG with 14bbs and a loose fish UTG+1 flatted with 49bbs. I 3b AKs expecting to get it in with UTG most every time.  I sized my 3b small, 2.75x, to entice UTG+1 to shove a wider range even though I am never folding.  To my surprise, UTG folded and UTG+1 called. I am not very sure of his range but I expect it to be around: 77-JJ, ATs-AQs, AJo-AQo, KTs+, KJo+, QTs+, J9s+. He could have more pairs and/or suited connectors as well. I do expect almost every player to get it in with QQ+ and AK so I capped his flatting range.

            We whiff the flop and the range I gave UTG+1 smacked the flop so I decided to give up on the hand and continue only on good turns suck as A, K, J, T, and diamonds. The flop checked through and the turn did not improve us. UTG+1 led very small which made me think he has a very weak hand. I decided to peel because I had the odds to hit an A or K against on pair and I thought I would be able bluff scary river. The river brings a four-card straight and UTG+1 checks to us.

            I am looking for advice on how to play this hand from the start. Do you like my 3b sizing or should I size it bigger to avoid situations like this? Do you agree with how I ranged UTG+1(remember he is a fish)? When we get to the flop, what is your plan for the hand? Do you like bet/folding or bet/calling the flop? Should we always raise such a weak bet on the turn? And as played, should I stick with my plan to bluff this river and if so, what sizing is best to get a fold from one pair?


kingten102
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May 13, 2013 - 4:16 am
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Think A Larger 3 Bet Accomplishes Fhe Same Thing Here. You Took THe Lead Preflop ANd this Flop Also Could/Should SmasH Your Perceived 3 Bet Range.

So As Played I Like To Cbet/Fold If Raised.
Prob Double Barrelling Most Turn Cards, With Intention Of Giving Up On Rivers If Called On Turn.

Just Seems Like A Mandatory CbeT In This Spot.
Also Cant See You Getting Alot Of Credit With A River Bluff Here After You Check Back The flop

NBG
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May 13, 2013 - 10:55 am
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agreed, I think you really show alot of weakness by checking that flop, I mean you would cbet it with QQ 88 99, JT, as well as whiffed hands like AK, so its good to balance your cbet range, and I think it makes it a lot clearer for you, fold to a re raise, re assess if he flats.

packallama
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May 13, 2013 - 2:04 pm
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The spr is only 1.45 to 1 on the flop and I expect villain to check shove any piece so I cannot realize any backdoor equity by cbetting. If I were to cb, it would be around 3665 or so (1/3 pot) because it would leave 12540 behind with a pot of 18283. The only thing is that I don't expect villain to fold much of his range on this flop other than the few underpairs he has because most hands have a pair and everything else has a gutterball.

danrose29
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May 13, 2013 - 8:03 pm
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i get in these spots often after 3 betting ak/aq and missing flop or getting terrible board i c bet sometimes but get  called often so not sure if i should c bet but if u check its obv weakness and if they have pair they love their hand, tricky maybe 3 barrels best  sometimes or two

redvulture61
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May 15, 2013 - 2:41 am
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If the player is weaker like you said i would probaly just go ahead and check/fold. I know this is expoitable but against a weaker player who is unlikely to fold without firing multiple barrells you are just opening yourself up to a tone of variance. 

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