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November 4, 2013
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(Part I)
Hello TPE,
This is my first post in the strategy part of the forum. Please bear with me, because I'm not just looking for advise on any one hand in particular. I have a hand posted below but this is only an example of what I am confused about.
I have serious trouble understanding whether certain situations are the necessary risks you have to take to bring down MTTs, or whether they are just situations to avoid. It's not an easy balance between protecting chips and being aggressive enough to consistenty final table.
Below is a hand from a $2 rebuy MTT, nearing the money and in general I'm doing well. The villain here is another biggish stack and seems pretty formidable. After about 140 hands here he was playing 30/18, stealing 36% and restealing 29%. He also only folded to C-bets about 25%, and limps 7%. We had already clashed once earlier in the tournament, and by the hand below I believe he considered me at least solid, and I believe he wouldn't play back at me with trash or just to be a bully.
Top 6 players are paid, there are about 14 left and winner takes about $70.
Merge Network $150 Gtd – [+R] No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t/t800.00 Blinds + t80.00 – 5 players – View hand 2346673
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
usmcjmac52 (CO): BB = 62.5, t50008
8krunron7 (BTN): BB = 29.8, t23825
TheMoccasin (SB): BB = 64.1, t51279
oneleggedstool (BB): BB = 39.9, t31895
Hero (UTG): BB = 51.3, t41048
Pre Flop: (t1200) Hero is UTG with J
A
1 fold, Hero raises to t1800.00, usmcjmac52 raises to t3331.00, 3 folds
My reasons for folding:
-I was almost positive he was strong. AJ+, 99+ EDIT: Actually I am not doing my read justice – he was very clearly holding JJ+ in my opinion based on the hands we had played up to this point.
-I was not going to dominate anything he held
-I wouldn't be happy with flopping top pair whether it was the jack or the ace.
-He wasn't going to be easily outplayed post flop considering how strong I considered him to be.
Should I have done something other than fold here? I was trying to focus my aggression on the medium stacks and basically avoid negative EV situations against good players sitting on lots of chips.
If this spurs some discussion, I will probably like to ask about another hand or two from this same tourney.
Thank you all for any thoughts.
November 4, 2013
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I realize that my title seems a bit unrelated to the hand I posted.
This is both because
-I'm not just wondering about this particular hand, but also
-In this hand after I folded the villain clicked rabbit, and the rabbit truly messed with me. It was the exact type of thing that might draw the learning player to think “well, I think I made the right choice, but how can I be sure?”
November 4, 2013
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Essentially, I feel it's easier said than done not to “be results oriented” if you don't already know what the right answers are. So anyway, yes, I suppose feedback on the AJ hand would be a good start.
Thanks again.
November 4, 2013
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Lastly, it’s worth mentioning that all the big stacks were at my table with two tables left. There was only one player at the other table with more than 20k.
I just recently found the edit button, so in the future I will use that.
January 28, 2013
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Is this a 6max tourney? I am going to assume it is due to it having 5 players on the table, 14 people left in the tourney and 6 being paid (guesing final table paid only).
There is alot of information to consider in this spot. From the information provided the villain seems to be quite loose, however there is other factors you havent provided that need to be considered also. After 140 hands we should generally have a better picture of our opponent than the information given. What is his 3bet %? Is your resteal stat you refer to 3b vs steal? What hands has he shown down? How has he been playing postflop? What is his cbet%? What is his WTSD%? What does this sizing say about his range here? Is he the kind of player that is calling down with 3rd or 4th pair, calling two barrels with gutshots? etc
His stats seem to categorise him as someone who likes to see flops and doesnt like to fold. I think generally he would flat here and want to see some cards however so this sizing and 3bet seems to imply strength. Although i would like AJs here, i think we have to peel for this small sizing and play quite conservatively postflop. A fold is definitely not bad either. If you feel he is bluffing here and he isnt going to 5bet bluffing you a 4bet is good. In these micros there will be alot of loose button clickers where lack of reasoning for certain plays is quite apparent.
As for your comment on not knowing about certain situations being necessary risks to win tournaments this just comes with studying the game, watching videos of better players, stepping outside your comfort zone and trying new things. Most, if not all pros will tell you aggression is the key to success. We cannot wait around for premium hands and situations all the time to win a tournament. We have to take risks, build stacks, put pressure on players and try creative lines that give us additional chips we wouldnt have otherwise. This is not to say that we should be 3betting 50% or opening 60% of pots and 3barreling all boards. You're right that it isnt an easy balance between protecting chips and being aggressive enough to constently final table however there are definitely spots we can pickup on, which comes with the above outlined things. Be prepared to step outside your comfort zone and if you make a mistake, review review review.
Dont read too much into him rabbit hunting. Although I havent played on sites where this is allowed I believe that due to his stats and liking to see flops/boards run out he does this in most hands anyway. If he has AK he wants to see if he hits, if he has QQ he wants to see if any overcards come. Think its quite easy to just move on, take note of the hand and see how he plays in future to warrant better decisions.
November 4, 2013
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Thanks for the response Kalculater. I can see that I shouldn't hold back on giving information about villains when posting, but that I should be more specific. I probably also need to set up my hud some more and be more aggressive.
I was wrong about the number of people left, it was 11, not 14. So you were right to wonder if it was a 6 max. But it was a 9 max with 6 paid and 11 remaining .. all the largest stacks were at my table, frustratingly, as only the other table's chipleader was in our chipstack range.
I'll tell you as much as I can about the villain. Of course you're right – loose, pretty aggressive. The 29% restealing was indeed 3bet against steals. His 3bet % is 3.7%, which is low, yeah? I hadn't paid specific attention to the %, which I should have, but I definitely was onto the fact that he wasn't 3betting me wide. Yes, his aggro was usually in steal spots, and this screamed strength in several ways, like that he had in fact shown down or rabbited several good hands, including AA in the small history we had. His Cbet was 67% (n=3). what is WTSD%?
If people don't mind, would you take a look at this earlier hand we had?
Merge Network $150 Gtd – [+R] No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t150.00/t300.00 Blinds + t30.00 – 8 players – View hand 2347435
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
usmcjmac52 (BB): BB = 53.4, t16005
8krunron7 (UTG): BB = 28.1, t8431
VinnyXRS3 (UTG+1): BB = 47.2, t14171
bernonefor20 (MP1): BB = 27.9, t8360
TheMoccasin (MP2): BB = 103.5, t31040
shyman81 (CO): BB = 14.8, t4441
Hero (BTN): BB = 80.0, t23997
viciouspkbuhl7 (SB): BB = 37.4, t11222
Pre Flop: (t690) Hero is BTN with 9
9
5 folds, Hero raises to t890.00, 1 fold, usmcjmac52 raises to t1777.00, Hero calls t887
I'm stopping the hand here. Is this an ok flat? Reasons:
-I felt his range had me well beaten and that a shove would be asking for a loss
-I could make such a small call because I had him in position, I could double up against anything if I hit, I could feel out a low board and I could fold if he plays very aggressively postflop, especially if the flop was like AKT of hearts
April 16, 2013
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Against 90% of players, folding AJ utg to a 3bet is the right play. If their 3betting a value range of 99+, AQ+ you only have 30% equity. In fact your more likely to be up against AQs, AKo, TT+ as a minimum value range.
If you call with AJ,you get in a world of trouble as most of the time money goes in on Jxx, Axx or low boards, your behind, given preflop action.
If you do manage to hit an Ace and he has a hand like TT-KK, how many streets will they call? 1? 2? I think the times you get value are so slim in comparison to the times you get in trouble with reverse implied odds. Esssentially, you lose a lot more when your behind than you gain when your ahead.
If you feel like your getting bluffed here (this will be more likely if you've opened early position a lot), I think 4betting as a bluff is the far superior play to calling. You have blockers to AK, AQ, AA, JJ so you will get folds more often than if you had 89s and decided to 4bet.
April 8, 2013
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Id say doing anything other than flatting with 99 in that spot is actually a mistake. Unless you have a ton of information that says he is gonna be light here alot and you can 4bet/induce you have to call. I think your logic might be a bit flawed. You are 53bb deep effective. This is too deep to be doing anything other than calling unless like i said you have specific reads that would warrant such a play. 99 is actually a very strong hand especially when you consider your button range and the fact you get to play this hand in position. I would be very happy to call and go from there.
As for the AJ hand, I agree with Michael. In this spot, your range is generally going to be viewed as much tighter. So, when you get 3 bet in this spot your opponent should have a very tight range as well. The other downside to AJ is that its very difficult to play post flop. Now if you had 99 in this spot I think you really have to call. The 3 bet is very small. Only 1531 more. As a general rule, I try to set mine when I think I realistically can make 10 times what Im risking the times I hit a set. Following this rule of thumb, you need to be able to win 15,310 the times you make a set. There is already 6700 in the pot before you call. So we have to expect to win an additional 8600 post flop. Given that his cbet is going to be for about 4k, I think its very reasonable to expect to win the necessary amount when you flop a set. Overall, from the examples you've shown, you played both hands in a very reasonable fashion.
It is tough to know if you are being results oriented. That can only be answered over time and with more experience. But thats why you have a subscription here lol. So you can come ask other players who might have more of that experience.
November 4, 2013
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Thanks for your responses joeshoe and mi11ch11. Here is the most honest moment I can think of while scrutinizing this MTT.
This was after I had doubled Villain up with the 99 hand you see above. I may have won the MTT if I won that hand. As of my tourney bust I have n=157 (~120 at the time) on the villain who has
VPIP 30, PFR 18, limp 7,
Cbet is 60,Fold to Cbet is 25, Call Cbet is 50,
Steal 36 Fold to steal 59 Resteal 29 Fold to Resteal 60 Call Resteal is 40.
11 players remaining, 6 paid, all the big stacks are at my table. Villain is in 1st place. There is some back and forth, and this hand arrives after I go a bit on the dry side.
Merge Network $150 Gtd – [+R] No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t500.00/t1000.00 Blinds + t100.00 – 5 players – View hand 2349441
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
usmcjmac52 (BB): BB = 69.5, t69488
xxGJxx (UTG): BB = 13.9, t13882
TheMoccasin (CO): BB = 49.8, t49794
oneleggedstool (BTN): BB = 29.5, t29535
Hero (SB): BB = 49.4, t49438
Pre Flop: (t2000) Hero is SB with T 8
I decide to take a stab at the big blind. I choose to raise/fold a low 2.X .. is this ok so far?
3 folds,Hero raises to t2230.00, usmcjmac52 calls t1230
Flop: (t4960) 6 4 3 (2 players)
The stab did not work, I miss and I'm out of position. It's the kind of board my usual range misses a lot unless I have trips, and I'm willing to just take it easy and fold if he bets. He's not super strong but he's obviously got me crushed .. probably AA, 22-JJ, A2s+, ATo+, KJs+, KQo, QJs, JTs, 9Ts. I think I put him mostly on a pocket pair and therefore didn't want to C-bet .. I figured he'd call with most pairs and would probably bet himself if I checked.
Hero checks, usmcjmac52 checks
Turn: (t4960) 4 (2 players)
He doesn't bite. Another miss card for both of us. I start slipping right here, I think.
Hero bets t1300.00, usmcjmac52 calls t1300
Too small, yeah?
River: (t7560) 2 (2 players)
Another miss. Ready, aim ..
Hero bets t2400.00, usmcjmac52 calls t2400
Too small? Villain showed down A
K
. This was the turning point for me this MTT, a change in my image and I think my biggest mistake. After this there was some back and forth, eventually I took some beats and that was that.
Should I have just folded this from the get go? If it is ok to steal this way, how was I doing .. on each street I guess? I feel like I could have taken it down with strong bets at any street.
Thanks guys.
April 16, 2013
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I think that given the cirumstances and board texture I think your fighting an uphill battle here. I feel like villian is unlikely to fold on this board without severe pressure due to:
(1) its blind versus blind and people are more likely to call in position as well as bb v sb
(2) people look for any excuse to call and you rep tons and tons of missed draws on this board (i hate betting when all draws miss but you can value bet much thinner)
(3) you don't bet the flop and your sizing on turn/river is quite small so if he is curious he will call much lighter to smaller bets (looks like a curious player given his low fold to cbet)
(4) he has tons of chips and may feel like he can bluff more and call lighter as hes in good shape if he loses
(5) your very unlikely to have a 4 and he may think you would bet bigger for value with trips/full house/straight
Hope that didn't sound harsh but against this player I would either be willing to bet big as a bluff on multiple streets given his wide/weak range and either bluff catch by check calling every street or value bet thinner expecting him to never fold 88 on Jxx when we have JT etc. Hope that helps
November 4, 2013
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Not harsh at all man, thank you! I posted this knowing I played it badly and was hoping for just this type of response.
April 16, 2013
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I forgot to say as well, when people check back in position they nearly always have an Ax hand. I don't think he checks back any pocket pair, any pair without a draw and any KJ type hands that haven't hit very often. His most likely holdings are AT- AK in my opinion. Not to seem results orientated but I'd put him on those a lot given his line.
In his mind he has showdown value, not a hand that needs much protection or a hand good enough to bet for value but probably feels like he has the best of it until proven otherwise
November 4, 2013
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Yeah, I definitely narrowed his range to suggest mostly AX when he checked back. I'll make a note to size larger if I find myself in this situation. I'm sure I'll be folding this most of the time though.
michael11, do you ever make steals like this? Do you think there are times to make this preflop raise?
April 16, 2013
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Oh yea, I like the steal, it's just not the right board texture or opponent to bet unless your going to be putting him under much more pressure. He looks like a player who needs to be completely convinced he is beat before he folds. I don't really like barreling without equity though unless it's a Kxx, Axx board where he should fold to our cbet.
To keep it simple, don't barrel without equity on draw heavy boards and try not to bluff when all the draws miss without a good read that he will fold or you've bet all previous streets and can put him on some weak made hand that can't stand pressure or a draw himself.
Tell yourself when betting “I'm trying to make XYZ hands fold here and this will take 1-2-3 barrels” – having a plan and knowing what your trying to make fold is half the battle. What turn cards/river cards are scary for his range? What cards hit your range? What cards are good for his range? Thinking about this at and away from the tables will help a ton
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