You're right to recognize that you're basically set mining when you call pre-flop. You need to win about 10x what it costs you to see the flop you set mine, so in this case you're calling 504 and need to win 5040 on average when you hit. There's 2300 already in the pot and 3400 left in Villain's stack so you need to stack him just about every time. If you think he's basically guaranteed to have QQ+, which is reasonable in this situation, then you probably will stack him often enough, but you have to recognize that against that range you can't put money in the pot even if you flop an overpair. Be grateful that he gave you a free shot to spike a T on the turn, check it back, and be ready to fold if you miss. The problem here is that you made a good read pre-flop but then let that fly out the window and just played your own cards once you flopped an overpair.

The 8:1 is too optimistic because you won’t win 100% of the time that you get it in with a set. That’s why I use 10:1. You aren’t getting much in excess of 10:1, which is why I say you have to stack him nearly every time you flop a set. If his range is {QQ+,AK} you probably have to fold because there will be too many flops where you don’t get his stack but his range is still too strong for you to continue unless he will be 100% honest postflop (ie check AK and bet bigger pairs), which obviously in this case he was not.

lapp3r30 said:

This seems like a spot IP that would have been a better call than 3b. I'm sure not gonna speak for him but judging from listening to his podcast I would think this is a call not raise pre. Calling the raise and closing the action calling the 3b would be a better spot IMO.

Good point. I think it's very close in a vaccuum and could swing either way with a read on the PFR, but yeah calling pre is very viable.