September 14, 2014
Hey Hey!!
Example:
blinds – $75/$150 (25 antes)
folds to hero , opens with A5s from the CO makes it $300, V on the button 3-bets $750 , action on hero?
total pot = $750 (including blinds and antes and hero's raise)
now if we fold to much or we fold way to little we will be unbalanced, so we pretty much want to fold the right amount. Now how do we figure out we arent folding too much or too little?
well i can answer that , since I've been studying this a little bit. So how we figure out if we fold to much is based upon villian and the risk reward, so for example if we're folding enough were he just shows immediate profit of his 3-bet then he could just 3-bet you with 72o here, clearly then hero has a very bad strategy! so thats something we have to make sure we don’tdo , which is fold to his 3-bet too much. so how do we figure out to much? well all we have to do is see how often he needs us to fold to show immediate profit and just not let him do that.
so going back to my example above , v is risking $750 to win $1,500, which is 50%, there's also 2 guys behind us that offers us protection so its really 55% o (roughly), So we can fold 55% of the time and still be fine here.
so my question is what do we play back with then?
let's say we are opening 30% of hands , 22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo
so if we're opening 30% we can fold everything but the X % , im trying to figure out what that X is?
once we figure out that , we can find out the % of hands we can play back with. After we've found out that , we then need to find out which hands will be in that top percentage that we play back with.
any help will be great…
cheers.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
If you were going to strictly 4bet or fold, x would be 45% if V is laying himself 1:1 and you expect the blinds to 4bet collectively about 5%. The more you call, the more you need to up that number, because Villain's equity with even his weakest hands will be greater than 0 if you let him see a flop.
September 14, 2014
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
You determined that Villain would need to succeed 50% of the time to break even if he realized no postflop equity, and gave a 5% chance of the blinds getting involved, so 100 – 50 – 5 = 45% that you need to defend if you always raise or fold and thus prevent him from realizing any preflop equity. When you call, his EV with air hands is not 0, so he's not really indifferent to 3betting these if he knows he'll get folds 50% of the time plus sometimes get to play postflop.
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