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How do you read this hefty river bet?
Shackleton
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August 25, 2010 - 9:00 am
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 No reads on an 39/0 villian over 18 hnds:

 

Full Tilt Poker $3 $0.30 Knockout No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t60/t120 Blinds – 8 players
Hand Conversion courtesy of Tournament Poker Edge

x-enter-x (UTG): t825 6.88 BBs
Snooker1967 (UTG+1): t5095 42.46 BBs
YADO74 (MP1): t1941 16.18 BBs
kobra1 (MP2): t5280 44 BBs
Ethan H 1976 (CO): t2429 20.24 BBs
cippolippo2 (BTN): t3466 28.88 BBs
jambig (SB): t3970 33.08 BBs
-QQuartz- (BB): t2200 18.33 BBs

Pre Flop: (t180) -QQuartz- is BB with 5 of clubs 6 of spades
4 folds, Ethan H 1976 calls t120, 2 folds, -QQuartz- checks

Flop: (t300) 6 of clubs 9 of hearts 3 of clubs (2 players)
-QQuartz- bets t240, Ethan H 1976 calls t240

Turn: (t780) 4 of hearts (2 players)
-QQuartz- checks, Ethan H 1976 checks

River: (t780) 4 of spades (2 players)
-QQuartz- checks, Ethan H 1976 bets t820,

-QQuartz- ???

billbam
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August 25, 2010 - 9:16 am
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I would have tried to check this down, your pair has some showdown value but not much.  Betting the flop just created a larger pot that made it worth trying to steal.  As played I just fold and move on, your not deep enough to make thin calls there.

JDOG1645
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August 25, 2010 - 11:42 am
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The river doesnt change anything he either has 9x or air. His big bet says go away imo but some players will bet TP like that as well. I agree checking the flop is better because  you will often get raised there.  We are risking too much  of our stack to call, I think we should fold. Although I think we may be ahead.

BBird40
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August 25, 2010 - 11:54 am
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JDOG1645 said:

The river doesnt change anything he either has 9x or air. His big bet says go away imo but some players will bet TP like that as well. I agree checking the flop is better because  you will often get raised there.  We are risking too much  of our stack to call, I think we should fold. Although I think we may be ahead.


 

Good explanation by JD.

 

I mean what does he bet with that you have beat? Not much. I think you should be folding here.

 

As stated, try to check it down, get to a cheap showdown. You coulda check called the turn and river instead of bet/check/fold. If you check to him on the flop and turn you allow him to bet his air as well b/c the line  you are taking looks weak.

FkCoolers
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August 25, 2010 - 12:11 pm
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Yeah, this is reverse implied odds in effect … a hand that may potentially be best on the flop but is very unlikely to be best by the river. The flop is likely to have hit him in some way and I don't like c-betting a largr percentage of the pot here.

He can have a 9, missed flush draw, 45 (not likely but certainly possible with his line), 78 …

As someone else said the issue here is we're so short to be making a hero call on the river and we're crippled if we're wrong.

As played I just shrug and fold.

HITTHEPANDA
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August 25, 2010 - 1:22 pm
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I would c/c flop, betting accomplishes nothing good.  Probably fold river.

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