Basically you need to figure out what your equity is vs the calling range of an opponent is + the equity from all the times he folds and compare it to what you are putting into the pot. If your equity is greater, then the shove is +EV. If it's lower than the shove is -EV.
 

To give you an example, let's take a situation where you are the small blind and it folds to you. You have AQ. Let's assume the blinds are 500/1000 with a 100 ante and you have a 10k stack before putting in your sb. The SB covers you.

The first piece of data you should consider is how often does he call. Let's say that your opponent will only call 99+, AQ+ (this is very dynamic based on gameflow situations obviously but let's just go with it). This is 6% of hands. This means he folds 94% of the time.

When he folds: 94% of the time you pick up blinds and antes of 2400 = +2256

When he calls: The 6% of the time he calls your AQ has 42% equity vs his calling range. So if you put in 10k on average you'll lose 802 when called. But this only happens 6% of the time so this is -48.12

Total EV = +2256 + (-48.12) = +2207.88

This is obviously very profitable. Let's change some assumptions though. Let's say he calls any pair or any broadway and you are now shoving 97s instead. FIrst off he is now folding only 82% of hands and your equity against his calling range is 37%. After doing this math:

your new EV is:

When he folds: 82% of the time you pick up blinds and antes of 2400 = +1968

When he calls: The 18% of the time he calls your 97s has 37% equity vs his calling range. So if you put in 10k on average you'll lose -1897 when called. But this only happens 18% of the time so this is -341.46

Total EV = +1968 + (-341.46) = +1626.54

Still extremely profitable but much less than the previous example. This is why it's almost always profitable to shove from the SB with ATC.

The calculations become a little more difficult as you shove from other positions with others to act. For example in the 97s hand let's say you shove from the HJ. That means there are still 4 to act. It's still profitable (+767) but because there are 4 left you are more likely to be called, reducing your fold equity.

Additionally, open shoving becomes less profitable when you have a big stack because you stand to lose so much the times you are called compared to the small amount you get from takign blinds. When you have 10bbs – adding the blinds is a big % of your equity. But when you have say 40bbs, adding the blinds is small equity and your loss outweighs it. I ran the numbers in the 97s hand with a 40bb hand and the EV is -2.3k.

Hope this helps.

clickys said:

“When he folds: 82% of the time you pick up blinds and antes of 2400 = +1968

When he calls: The 18% of the time he calls your 97s has 37% equity

vs his calling range. So if you put in 10k on average you'll lose -1897

when called. But this only happens 18% of the time so this is -341.46″

 

How did u calculate how much we will loose on average when he called and how did u find the -341.46 number ?

Let's take the equation in its whole: Total EV = +1968 + (-341.46) = +1626.54

The 1968 comes from the the 82% of the time he folds and you pick up 2400.  You multiply the gain by the frequency or 2400 *.82 = 1968

The -341.46 comes from the 18% of the time he calls and you lose -1897.  Once again you multiply the gain by the frequency or -1987 * .18 = -341.46.

You add these two together: fold equity + hand equity = total expected value

Yeah i get the equity of a call from pokerstove but it doesn't tell you what your EV of each scenario (call vs fold) because it doesn't know what the stack sizes are and what chips are already in the pot.