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How can one estimate the EV of a bluff into a dry side pot near a MTT bubble?
cfarmerga
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September 16, 2014 - 1:16 am
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I was having a discussion with a friend about the topic of bluffing into a dry side pot in a later-game MTT situation, say near the pay bubble. I'm wondering how to quantify the actual cost/benefit of making this play versus an alternative where both players simply check through to showdown. I tried playing with some ICM calculators with this, but I couldn't see how to model it quite right.

Obviously there is some set of important factors here, and I'm thinking that one could estimate the overall tournament value for such a play. Here are some assumptions I want to make for this:

  1. All players remaining in the tournament are of equal skill.
  2. There's one all-in player in this hypothetical hand, and there are two other players in the hand.
  3. The dry side bluff constitutes an all-in from the bluffer, so there's no possible rebluff or further action from the villain.
  4. Either the bluff is made and the villain folds to it, or the bluff isn't made and the hand is checked through to showdown.
  5. I'm willing to add more to simplify if needed.
These are some relevant factors:
  1. Pot size
  2. Stack sizes for bluffer and his villain
  3. Chips in play
  4. Payout structure
  5. Calculated equities for the hero's, villain's, and all-in's hand ranges for the given board.
Am I missing something else?
Given these variables, how can one try to estimate the true cost of making this play?
thanks!
Chris
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