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How bad is my call on the flop (are we getting close to the proper odds to do so?)

LeShysti

Guppy

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March 29, 2013 - 12:16 am

Winning Poker Network - 400/800 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

jbroooo (UTG): 22,616 (VPIP: *, PFR: *, 3Bet Preflop: *, Hands: 0)
LeShysti (UTG+1): 18,250
chacharu33 (UTG+2): 12,626 (VPIP: *, PFR: *, 3Bet Preflop: *, Hands: 0)
the body spill (MP): 10,178 (VPIP: *, PFR: *, 3Bet Preflop: *, Hands: 0)
Cellar door (MP+1): 8,421 (VPIP: *, PFR: *, 3Bet Preflop: *, Hands: 0)
Nevermind! (CO): 14,546 (VPIP: *, PFR: *, 3Bet Preflop: *, Hands: 0)
n0000bs (BTN): 32,465 (VPIP: *, PFR: *, 3Bet Preflop: *, Hands: 0)
TPE_RFB (SB): 14,372 (VPIP: *, PFR: *, 3Bet Preflop: *, Hands: 0)
Nebuvent (BB): 32,180 (VPIP: *, PFR: *, 3Bet Preflop: *, Hands: 0)

9 players post ante of 100, TPE_RFB posts SB 400, Nebuvent posts BB 800

Pre Flop: (pot: 2,100) LeShysti has  A 8 

fold, [color=red]LeShysti raises to 1,600[/color], fold, fold, fold, Nevermind! calls 1,600, [color=red]n0000bs raises to 3,994[/color], fold, fold, LeShysti calls 2,394, Nevermind! calls 2,394

Flop: (14,082, 3 players)  6 5 7 
LeShysti checks, Nevermind! checks, [color=red]n0000bs bets 14,082[/color], [color=red]LeShysti raises to 14,156 and is all-in[/color], fold, n0000bs calls 74

Turn: (42,394, 2 players)  9 

River: (42,394, 2 players)  T

No reads on the villain, are we getting close to the proper odds to call the flop bet? I wouldn't make this call a 100% of the time but decided to do so in this particular instance. Also, I couldn't get the converter to work with this hand. Sorry.

markconkle

High Stakes Shark

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March 29, 2013 - 3:11 am

What's the buyin? I feel like the small 3bet against two 20BB stacks means this guy is superstrong pre, but he could also be trying a squeeze thinking you will shove or fold. Readless, I'd probably put him on something like JJ+, AK. Assuming he bombs the flop with his whole range, you are 39.5% to win, making it an easy call, cEV-wise. If he's not shoving the AK except with the spade draw, you are still 38.6 to win, so still an easy call. The hands that are crushing you are nut flush draws, so lets start adding those until you are no longer correct to call. Against JJ+,AsKs,AsQs,AsJs,AsTs,As9s,As8s,As7s, you are still 35% to win, so it's a +cEV call. If you put him on exactly AA you can fold. Or AA, AsKs.

If you think he 3bets light here, then he will also have some made straights, two pairs, sets, and pair+draw hands, which are very good against you. However, if he's on a wide range, he's probably shoving a lot of non-nut flush draws which you are flipping with. It's certainly possible to craft a range that you are not getting odds against, but I don't think it's a range we have any reason to put him on right now.

Purely chip EV, I think this is a call against any realistic range. However, it's definitely a marginal edge and you are going to bust out of the tournament more than half the time when you call. Your final decision definitely depends on how many people are left, how fast the blinds are going up, how you rate your skill relative to the rest of the field, etc. Personally I would take this spot more often than not.

FkCoolers

Cambridge, Ma (Central Square)

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March 29, 2013 - 8:23 am

Eh… it's marginal. So is the open, to be honest, with your chip stack and position. You have 5 reshove stacks behind you and calling off vs any of them isn't so good.

markconkle

High Stakes Shark

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March 29, 2013 - 9:33 am

Yeah, I kind of honed in on the question asked, but looking back, with 22BB UTG+1, I think folding pre is best. It removes you from getting into this situation in the first place.

jamo

Grinding Micros

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March 29, 2013 - 12:19 pm

I know this is a post-flop question, but I think with 5 players behind who could ship on you I just fold A8s pre with your stack size, unless we're on a final table bubble or similar where you can raise/fold vs predictable weak/tight opponents. Also, I just fold to the 3b, but anyway on to post-flop. As played I don't like calling off pretty much my whole stack on a draw so i would just fold. Even if we think we have 8 outs and that we'll hit 32% of the time, 68% of the time we're out of the tournament, which is too much for me as a caller.

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