I’ll take a run here. I’m new at this kind of analysis so will likely make mistakes that I def want people to call me out on.

Villain makes standard open slightly less than 2x raise.

This is the range I see villain with as a 40 VPIP (assuming your 17 games is 17 hands?): 22+, A7s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, 65s-T9s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo, JTo+, T9o, 98o, 87o. I feel like 20% of range is a little more reasonable for raising utg+3. The suited cards and small PPs might be limps, but that’s read dependent – had he limped before or was he always open raising?

So against this range I have you at 40%. At 4:1 pot odds, you’d want at least 20% equity so this is a clear call.

Flop Td Tc Ah. Villain checks and you check. Against the PF range about you’re 92%. Our main concern now is to start getting all our chips into the middle.

But what does his check mean? Why didn’t he standard cbet? If his range is as wide as I have it, then I think he’s cbetting pretty well his whole range, and slow playing AA and Tx. You don’t include a CBET stat, but I don’t see why he’d check this board – why would he immediately be afraid of the T? So maybe we discount a lot of his range that would have been cbet?

V flop range: 22+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o; Weights: KK:25%, QQ:25%, JJ:25%, 99:25%, 88:25%, 77:25%, 66:25%, 55:25%, 44:25%, 33:25%, 22:25%, AKs:25%, AQs:25%, AJs:25%, ATs:25%, A9s:25%, KQs:25%, KJs:25%, QJs:25%, 98s:25%, 87s:25%, 76s:25%, 65s:25%, AKo:25%, AQo:25%, AJo:25%, ATo:25%, KQo:25%, KJo:25%, QJo:25%, T9o:25%, 98o:25%, 87o:25%

Assuming we agree with this idea – he’s slow playing his big hands and 75% of the time cbetting the rest of his hand on the flop — then you’re still 80% to the good.

We want chips in the pot. If you bet the flop, is he going to auto believe you have the T? Even if you have an A, he might too and will call that. I feel like most players won’t give you credit for either T and may think they’re still good, and since we want to grow the pot, I really feel like betting the flop is the smarter way to go, 1/3 to 1/2 pot. Again depends on how fit or fold he is and that’s going to be read dependent. Tell me what you think of this?

Turn is 9c. Now Villain bets 1/2 pot. You haven’t shown any interest in the hand, really, so I don’t think this bet narrows down his range at all. It could be he’s betting an A, it could be a 9, overs, any other pair, air, gut shot for KQ. Your equity to the flop weighted range is now 77%. If you raise, the strength of your hand becomes way clearer, your range narrows, and yes, worse hands likely fold. Right now you’re beat by AA, 99, T9, AT, you’re tied with Tx, you’re beating Ax and any other broadways and PPs he might have here. I feel like since he didn’t cbet the flop, it’s likely his hand is weighted toward the stronger end of his range. Calling the turn bet is 100%, but I don’t hate raising it and then either calling or folding a 3bet. 

River is Js. Unfortunate. And interesting too that your equity hasn’t changed at all, if we agree with my read of the weighted hand range. Villain leads and you raise and are reraised. I think even though we’re pretty well pot committed I’d rather call here, because you’re beaten by JJ, AA, tied with TJ and beating all the same hands as before, but what is he 3betting your raise with? Is he really 3betting Ax? Maybe KQ, if it got there. Q8 is very unlikely as a PFR hand. Maybe 99. So he’s probably 3betting AA, JJ, 99 and KQ, and there are slightly more combos you beat than beat you so I guess it’s a call. And bluffs I guess. But I don’t think it’s a all-in reraise…

But at the end of the day house over house is pretty sick. Good old poker. If I was in your spot in the moment, I probably would have bet exactly the same way on the river. Def would have bet the flop or raised the turn tho, so that might have changed things for you, information wise.

Let me know if you think this analysis was reasonable or where I’m not thinking straight.