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April 28, 2017
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I was pretty confused, thoughts? Opponent was grinding 6-7 tables of micro/low stakes tournaments, so he is probably a low stakes regular.
https://www.boomplayer.com/23949360_623831B696
I was planning on just check-calling the flop. Once he checked it back, I thought his range was quite ace heavy so I didn’t lead the turn. What do you think about the river sizing?
Thoughts?
May 9, 2017
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I agree the guy had an ace. I’m just not sure how strong of an ace it is. Could have very easily been AT or A9 of spades based on the lack of c-bet. Or would the lack of one show strength with a flopped set despite the flush draw sitting out there?
As far as river bet size goes, a bet of 850 or 900 looks more credible there than a pot bet to me. You not leading the turn then throwing a pot bet shows desperation of a busted draw and he sees right through that. At the same time, though, you do have a stronger-than-normal bluff-catcher and you beat his most of his range. If he has AQ there, good for him but that is his only credible holding (to me) that you lose to. Call & make him show you his missed A-high flush draw.
June 2, 2013
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I fold for 3x EP at ~24bb oop, maybe if hero have almost 30 I would call and play from there.
I don´t agree that V´s range have a lot of aces, I think he will bet that turn and start to build a pot. As I put most of V´s range on weak side, I would lead river small, ~400.
When V shoves the river, looks to me that he has a str8 or a set, would be an ugly fold to me.
April 28, 2017
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almofadinhas said
I fold for 3x EP at ~24bb oop, maybe if hero have almost 30 I would call and play from there.I don´t agree that V´s range have a lot of aces, I think he will bet that turn and start to build a pot. As I put most of V´s range on weak side, I would lead river small, ~400.
When V shoves the river, looks to me that he has a str8 or a set, would be an ugly fold to me.
It’s true that we’re OOP and don’t have a very deep stack, but folding QJs when getting almost 3:1 seems a bit like a tightish fold.
June 2, 2013
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kntz said
It’s true that we’re OOP and don’t have a very deep stack, but folding QJs when getting almost 3:1 seems a bit like a tightish fold.
Yeah, but we also will have an SPR of almost 3 otf, against a stronger range than would be if a late position opened pre.
April 28, 2017
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almofadinhas said
Yeah, but we also will have an SPR of almost 3 otf, against a stronger range than would be if a late position opened pre.
True, there are some concerns of the realization of our equity. That’s quite dependent on the opponent though. Against the absolute nits this might be a fold against a 3x+ open. But generally I still think it’s a mandatory call when we only need to have 26.4%. It shouldn’t be underestimated how well it does against fairly strong opening ranges.
38.99% [QJs]
61.01% [44+, ATs+, A5s-A2s, KJs+, QJs, JTs, AJo+, KQo]
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Well done kntz, thanks for bringing some numbers to the discussion. Pre should definitely be a call against any but a confirmed super-nit. I like OP’s line, including the river fold. A lot of folks are trying to make strong assumptions about what a certain bet size will look like or whether or not Villain would always bet an Ace on flop/turn. It all just sounds like guessing to me. Let’s think of it this way: this is probably the worst hand Hero pots the river with (for value), which means it should generally be folded to a raise, absent some really good reason to do something else.
June 2, 2013
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I was thinking MP had a tighter range to open, because V 3x it.
April 28, 2017
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almofadinhas said
I was thinking MP had a tighter range to open, because V 3x it.
Still, even against tighter ranges, it does pretty well.
36.69% [QJs]
63.31% [55+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs, KQo]
35.63% [QJs]
64.37% [77+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+]
33.17% [QJs]
66.83% [99+, AJs+, AQo+]
June 2, 2013
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yeah, but will be awkawrd to play a 3x pot oop against tighter range, with top pair lets say, no draws.
but seems ok the first range that Andrew said to call.
October 21, 2012
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This is why I didn’t leave the US to play on Stars. Excellent fold man. No one I play against can do that.
I’ve been learning to do it myself and I have gotten super comfortable with it. Better to make a bad fold against the 10% of guys who are capable of bluffing/value betting worse in that spot than a bad call against the 90% who aren’t.
I like your river sizing too. You can get called by lots of top pair hands for sure at that size. Go for it.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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I agree 100% with Andrew. From a GTO standpoint you have better hands to call a raise with, and from an exploitative standpoint villain is unlikely to do this with worse anyway. This is often just going to be a bad slowplay or a weird rivered straight/set.
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