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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy hot 3.3$ AA 3 way river decision

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hot 3.3$ AA 3 way river decision

nospa

Lighting Money On Fire

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April 6, 2018 - 5:59 am

Here I think till the river is fine. (Ott I like x/call and pot control when the spade hits as it would suck to face a raise )

On the river though I am not sure I beat two pairs but I don’t see many except 97s all other hands beat me. I put his range on equilab and have the below conclusion

Board: 7s5c2s9s2h
Equity Win Tie
CO 21.43% 21.43% 0.00% { AhAs }
SB 78.57% 78.57% 0.00% { 97s, 86s, KsQs, KsJs, QsJs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, Ks9s, Ts8s }

I need 28% to call and I get 21.4 with the range I gave him ( flushes, two pairs, straight) So ok to fold here otr? Esp with an other player to act behind .

UTG: 8,240 (206 bb)
UTG+1: 7,138 (178 bb)
MP: 4,930 (123 bb)
MP+1: 4,995 (125 bb)
CO (Hero): 4,885 (122 bb)
BU: 4,865 (122 bb)
SB: 4,755 (119 bb)
BB: 5,199 (130 bb)

Pre-Flop: (100) Hero is CO with A♥ A♠
4 players fold, Hero raises to 120, BTN calls 120, SB calls 100, 1 fold

Flop: (440) 7♠ 5♣ 2♠ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 260, BTN calls 260, SB calls 260

Turn: (1,220) 9♠ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

River: (1,220) 2♥ (3 players)
SB bets 800, CO (Hero) folds, BTN calls 800

Foucault

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April 6, 2018 - 8:56 am

Though probably exploitable, I think this is likely a very good, disciplined, and non-intuitive fold. The mere fact that you’re considering folding here speaks well to the rigor of your hand-reading, IMO. I think SB will struggle to find bluffs on this runout (with all the most obvious draws getting there) and many players will not value bet one pair like this. So, I think it’s likely that your hand is a pure bluff-catcher, and despite your very good blocker, I don’t think Villain is likely to be bluffing. VNH.

DuckinDaDeck

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April 10, 2018 - 1:47 am

I think this is close on the river. If we give villain 0 bluffs, 99,77,55,22,A2s,86s,and every Broadway flush combo, but also have them bet A9s,TT,97s, we are beating 32.4% of their value range. If they only bet TT combos with a spade, we beat 25.8% of their bets.

I agree with Andrew that considering a fold is a sign that you are hand reading well, but in villain’s shoes I’m betting A9 and TT after the turn checks through. Against population at hot $3.30 I think you can probably fold due to villain’s sizing, but it’s going to be very villain dependent against tougher competition.

theginger45

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April 10, 2018 - 11:37 am

I like this fold. People play so face-up in multi-way pots, particularly on turn and river, that I think you’re rarely good here.

I also think evaluating the spot purely in terms of the odds you’re getting is probably an over-simplification, since there is a player left to act behind you who is going to overcall or raise with a non-zero frequency.

I actually think the flop is the most interesting part of this hand – I like checking here, with the intention of either check-raising or check-calling, depending on your read regarding opponents’ tendencies. It’s hard to balance a c-betting range in these spots, since you end up just being driven by your equity instead of being able to really have specific bluffs in your betting range.

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