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hot 2.2$ Early stage flop top 2 on dry board face AI otr
nospa
Lighting Money On Fire
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April 3, 2018 - 5:33 am
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Hello team,

Preflop I don’t want to 3bet here the iso seems strong 5x so I call in order to play post flop. 

On the flop I check with the plan to x/r and gii against worst 2 pairs, or get values for worst AJ type hands or QJ JT KQ if they are but enough to call. Also I plan to bet river too unless it hits a K

Otr facing this shove seems like nuts I am not sure if we is shoving worst 2pair hands given the stacks I decided to fold.

Just I hear a scream into my head River raises are the nuts ! 😛

What you think on this one?

UTG: 6,155 (103 bb) 29/15/100 hands 
UTG+1: 8,940 (149 bb)
MP: 4,229 (70 bb)
MP+1: 4,992 (83 bb)
LP: 4,990 (83 bb)
CO: 3,603 (60 bb)
BU: 5,032 (84 bb) 22/15/3bet 14.4 84 hands 
SB: 2,619 (44 bb)
BB (Hero): 4,757 (79 bb)

Pre-Flop: (162) Hero is BB with Q A
UTG calls 60, 4 players fold, CO calls 60, BTN raises to 300, 1 fold, Hero calls 240, UTG calls 240, 1 fold

Flop: (1,062) T A Q (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, BTN checks

Turn: (1,062) 2 (3 players)
Hero bets 600, UTG calls 600, BU folds

River: (2,262) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets 1,170, UTG raises to 5,247 (all-in), BB (Hero) folds

theginger45

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April 4, 2018 - 1:03 pm
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I think I slightly prefer a 3-bet here since villain is likely to be fairly wide when isoing, and their range will contain a lot of dominated Ax/broadways. Calling is okay though.

River is a really tough spot. I think based on the fact that it’s the UTG limper who jams, we can make the logical assumption that this player is less likely to be capable of significant aggression here, since players who limp a lot are rarely going to take aggressive river lines.

As a consequence, it really comes down to a) do we think river can ever jam river with something like A8 here, b) what kind of potential bluffing hands can villain have, and c) how likely is it that villain might slowplay KJ or play J9 this way.

With a), I think it’s unlikely, especially since we block A8 (as well as Q8). Villain has very few potential bluffing hands that get to this river, since they aren’t likely to call turn with a lot of air hands, so that covers b). With c), I definitely think both options are very plausible. Players who do a lot of preflop limping also like to slowplay post, and J9s is a hand villain very well might play exactly this way with a high frequency.

I think you made a good fold here. I think you get shown a straight of some kind here more often than anything else if you call.

nospa
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April 5, 2018 - 7:41 am
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thanks for the reply ! I was thinking pretty much the same, I don’t see any bluffs in his range + no worst value bets so I think folding top two pair is a fold here even with the set I would have made a crying call. 

DuckinDaDeck
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April 5, 2018 - 10:19 am
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I like everything theginger said and I think you made a very tough but correct fold on the river. One small change I would recommend is betting either smaller or larger on the river.

When sizing value bets, especially on the river, we want to target specific hands and aim to either 1) get called by the widest possible range or 2) extract the most chips possible from hands slightly worse than ours.

By sizing roughly half pot you make it very hard for villain to make a crying call with hands like KQ/QJ, but are also not charging villain’s Ax the maximum. On this board, I would prefer to bet ~ 33% pot when trying to get called wide and more like 70% pot when aiming to get paid by villain’s stronger holdings.

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