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hero facing raise otr with nut flush on paired board, which line does hero take?
folding_aces_pre_yo
High Stakes Mario Kart Propping
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February 9, 2016 - 8:39 am
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#Game No : 765978837
***** 888poker Hand History for Game 765978837 *****
$10/$20 Blinds No Limit Holdem – ***
Tournament #77158275 $2.70 + $0.30 – Table #16 9 Max (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: fana1337 ( $4,608 )
Seat 2: JeissonG888 ( $4,880 )
Seat 3: thenorth71 ( $4,970 )
Seat 4: bredo14 ( $4,570 )
Seat 5: caterro ( $5,410 )
Seat 6: zone3000 ( $5,114 )
Seat 7: london_ace ( $4,820 )
Seat 9: AshyLarryy ( $5,628 )
Seat 10: Dunlander ( $5,000 )
london_ace posts small blind [$10]
AshyLarryy posts big blind [$20]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to london_ace [ 5heart, Aheart ]
Dunlander folds
fana1337 calls [$20]
JeissonG888 folds
thenorth71 calls [$20]
bredo14 calls [$20]
caterro folds
zone3000 calls [$20]
london_ace calls [$10]
AshyLarryy checks
** Dealing flop ** [ 5club, Qheart, 2heart ]  $120
london_ace checks
AshyLarryy checks
fana1337 checks
thenorth71 checks
bredo14 checks
zone3000 checks
** Dealing turn ** [ 2diamond]   $120
london_ace bets [$90]
AshyLarryy folds
fana1337 folds
thenorth71 folds
bredo14 folds
zone3000 calls [$90]
** Dealing river ** [ 6heart ]  $300
london_ace bets [$225]
zone3000 raises [$787]
london_ace calls [$562]
** Summary **

 

hey hey

 

no reads

 

I decided to call the river raise but after the hand was done with , i realized that it was probably better if i had 3-bet if i was then faced with a 4-bet shove i’d probably have to call. If we look at this hand from the beginning, v limped in the pot so they are likely to limping in with a very wide range. We can discount QQ, and we can discount 55/22 , v would of very likely bet those otf also we have the 5 , which makes it even more less likely. Ott we can discount 22, as there’s not many combo’s for that. It’s extremely unlikely v has Quads. so what is v range when they call turn? maybe they could of played a weak Qx this way, but even then i reckon v should be betting those otf, but maybe he wouldn’t, also unlikely v has limped in with Q2s and if he did have that in his range he probably would of raised this ott. They could be calling turn with maybe weaker flush draws, but again thats probably unlikely since we have the Aheart blocker.A straight does get there on the river with 34s, but i doubt many players are limping with this pre. when get to the river, v raised , i was trying to figure out which worse hands call us when we raise here? weaker flushes is likely i guess , the only hand that worried me is 66 lol. I mean if hero 3-bets and v 4-bet shoves, i really would not know what to do. I don’t think a good player would 4-bet shove river with anything weaker then our hand, that’s what i am trying to point out here,  Unless they are a hyper LAG haha. Most of the players in the micro’s are not very good though , v may decide to over-estimate their hand, which leans me towards 3-bet/c. i cant imagine 3-bet/folding river, i mean if that’s the case we may as well just call v raise right?  I just think there’s quite a few hands we beat that makes 3-bet profitable here.

The thing is though, if we rake a look at hero’s range,  Hero could have flushes in their range given my line, so when we bet river  for v to raise here they’ve gotta have a strong hand as well. For v to raise here out of no where that’s a sign that v has monsters in their range even so its unlikely given how the hand has been played out, so for that reason i reckon calling v raise is the correct line to take. Thoughts please?

 

cheers.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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February 9, 2016 - 8:52 am
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The reason why i bet turn was for thin value/protection , i reckon we have the best hand here given that no1 bet the flop. Some players could of checked say pocket pairs higher which does have us beat but i reckon taking the pot down ott and to get v to fold a hand like KT is good for us. if i had got called by one opponent ott and the river was say a 9club i would have just checked and if v bets i probably would have called as i think v could still be betting missed draws like A3/A4 or perhaps even flush draws (which i know is unlikely given we have the A blocker). I’m really unsure if they would play a Q this way, it is possible that v could be checking back Qx otf and then calling turn with it, so they would probably bet their Qx if checked too otr , but i reckon more often then not most opponents would bet their Qx here. so yeah if anyone wants to throw out their thoughts on this, feel free:)

 

if i was up against button , i would be more tempted to c/c a river bet rather then an opponent in ep/mp because the player in position should be more inclined to bet Qx as they have more information ,  does that make sense? so i reckon ep/mp would more likely have Q in their range, so yeah against ep/mp i’d more likely c/f rather then c/c.

MovieFX
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February 9, 2016 - 3:59 pm
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I’d be interested what the equity calc would be but I think in-game I re-raise thinking any set or 2-pair would have made themselves known on the flop considering V is on the button with so many limpers in the hand making this look a lot like a dominated flush on the river. 

Note, if this was the initial or second limper, instead of the button, I might add QQ back in as a slow-play since no one bumped it up pre-flop and it could be a failed trap, played cute, that binked the turn. I’d also be more suspect of 2-pair or 55/22 from someone in EP and then just call the river.

 

But…why not lead out on the flop?
– Everyone is deep and I’d want to build the pot. There is no pre-flop raiser so no one we expect to c-bet for us to c/c or c/r
– You have a flush and back-door wheel draw + over-card (which is vulnerable if hit but would still have showdown value if the flush misses).
– Narrows ranges on the turn which reduces the amount of 2s out there
– If the turn card is a flush it may kill the action
– Taking this line I think a second barrel on the turn is an easy decision. I think the only card that has any meaning is another Q, but even then your bet may be a blocker. Maybe a non-flush 3 or 4 if V has A4 or A3 respectively, but I’d still barrel for the same reasons as a Q.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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February 9, 2016 - 11:04 pm
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I’m guessing i wanted to go for a c/r otf thats why i never leaded out. I’m not to sure if c/c here would be any good? i like leading out here as we do have outs if called, but what can we represent otf? Q2/Q5? 55/22? its pretty hard to rep a hand on this flop. That dont mean that we cant apply pressure , given that its a limped a pot everyone going to have a wide range ,  so we can get a lot of folds by the river but i would not want to do that with this hand 😛 with a hand like 2nd pair would u not want to take it that to showdown?

 

are you saying you would barrel A5 on a blank turn for value? if so, which worse hands are calling? i really think c/c turn and re-evaluate is a good line to take here with our hand.

florianm1
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February 10, 2016 - 6:59 am
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I like turn lead.

yeah i 3bet river.

55 and 22 bet at some point. Q2s is only 1 combo left. we still get paid from lower flushs

folding_aces_pre_yo
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February 10, 2016 - 7:17 am
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@movie  what i meant is if you had bet flop and then barrel turn with our hand which worse hands will be calling turn? that’s why i said if we had bet flop its probably best to c/c turn and re-evaluate river. 

 

@florian , true true.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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February 10, 2016 - 7:32 am
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Lol im actually thinking which hands would we play like this with our bluffs? I’d probably lead A4/A3/ and hand like 67o , i think our bluffing range ott should be very wide. Only thing is that there’s a lot of players which makes me think that our bluffing range should not be any two like 67o for instance , but i dont think it would be horrible given that ranges are so weak otf.

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