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August 10, 2014
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As the title suggests, I’ve been struggling to make folds when they are likely called for.
What do you guys think are the best ways for me to combat this? I find picking off bluffs damn satisfying, but overall it is a leak in my game. Generally when I notice myself folding more it is a sign that I’m playing well. I’m a bit concerned that it is a psychological tendency to either suspect a bluff or just not want to fold.
So…
Hand reading. Get better. More specifically, remember to incorporate hand ranges at the start of the hand into ranges by the river.
Visualize my own ranges when making big decisions. Is this the top of my range? The bottom? The middle?
I think the inability to fold marginal holdings is where I get into trouble.
Thank you for your thoughts and help!
Here are a couple examples from $5 tournaments:
Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) – 100/200 NL – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 9,228 (VPIP: 20.15, PFR: 7.52, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 137)
SB: 4,065 (VPIP: 15.00, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 20)
BB: 4,920 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
UTG: 13,582 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
UTG+1: 8,070 (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 14.67, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 80)
MP: 5,816 (VPIP: 22.20, PFR: 19.35, 3Bet Preflop: 8.57, Hands: 445)
Hero (MP+1): 4,960
CO: 8,785 (VPIP: 29.87, PFR: 10.53, 3Bet Preflop: 3.13, Hands: 77)
8 players post ante of 20, SB posts SB 100, BB posts BB 200
Pre Flop: (pot: 460) Hero has K
K
fold, UTG+1 raises to 445, fold, Hero calls 445, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 245
Flop: (1,595, 3 players) J Q 5
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 666, BB raises to 4,455 and is all-in, UTG+1 calls 4,455, Hero raises to 4,495 and is all-in, UTG+1 calls 40
Turn: (15,040, 3 players) K
River: (15,040, 3 players) A
Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) – 200/400 NL – Holdem – 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
CO: 17,798 (VPIP: 15.27, PFR: 10.11, 3Bet Preflop: 4.69, Hands: 494)
BTN: 3,397 (VPIP: 20.25, PFR: 14.24, 3Bet Preflop: 7.09, Hands: 1,041)
SB: 9,747 (VPIP: 25.84, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 8.57, Hands: 179)
BB: 21,602 (VPIP: 22.88, PFR: 20.30, 3Bet Preflop: 8.60, Hands: 480)
UTG: 7,619 (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 5.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)
UTG+1: 5,398 (VPIP: 21.01, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 138)
Hero (MP): 10,740
7 players post ante of 50, SB posts SB 200, BB posts BB 400
Pre Flop: (pot: 950) Hero has A J
fold, fold, Hero raises to 920, fold, fold, SB raises to 1,440, fold, Hero calls 520
Flop: (3,630, 2 players) Q J 4
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn: (3,630, 2 players) 6
SB bets 1,815, Hero calls 1,815
River: (7,260, 2 players) 7
SB bets 6,442 and is all-in, Hero calls 6,442
April 30, 2015
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I don’t see how the first hand you mentioned makes you a station. The action, and the fact that it is a $5 tournament suggests that you could see various hands like flush draws, straight draws, top pair etc. Worst case you are against QJ or a set. And I see there was a K on the turn. Did you end up winning the pot? Or was there a bad beat with the A on the river?
The second hand, I would check back the flop if I had top pair with my nut flush draw. With 2nd pair, being aggressive on the flop might help, as a 3-bet from villain might show strength and you can choose to call and evaluate on the turn or 4-bet shove. Reason being, you would want to get your chips in when you have most equity..
Now coming to the “station” issue, I personally don’t see any problems until the river of the 2nd hand. May be you are beating yourself up a little too much? Or we need more quantifiable examples?
May 25, 2014
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I’m assuming villain had AA in that first hand. I’d find it hard to fold KK there in a $5 tourney. Maybe if you’d 3-bet pre instead of checking here and villain jammed you could find one?
The second hand I’d definitely be betting that flop then shoving to any 3-bet. What did villain have here (QQ or JJ?).
August 10, 2014
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navinbits said
I don’t see how the first hand you mentioned makes you a station. The action, and the fact that it is a $5 tournament suggests that you could see various hands like flush draws, straight draws, top pair etc. Worst case you are against QJ or a set. And I see there was a K on the turn. Did you end up winning the pot? Or was there a bad beat with the A on the river?The second hand, I would check back the flop if I had top pair with my nut flush draw. With 2nd pair, being aggressive on the flop might help, as a 3-bet from villain might show strength and you can choose to call and evaluate on the turn or 4-bet shove. Reason being, you would want to get your chips in when you have most equity..
Now coming to the “station” issue, I personally don’t see any problems until the river of the 2nd hand. May be you are beating yourself up a little too much? Or we need more quantifiable examples?
Thanks, navin, I appreciate the response.
Those may have been some poor examples. This is a bit more apparent in my cash game results, which may be a separate discussion.
It is also possible that my issues lie elsewhere.
My WSD After River Call is actually OK. My WWSF, however, is low. Which perhaps means that I’m folding too often to cbets, which is the opposite of stationy. HMM! 
I’ve also been consuming a LOT of poker lately. It is possible I’m just a bit frazzled and not seeing an accurate big picture.
Regarding the first hand, UTG+1 had a cbet of 100%, and after he check/shoves in this spot, I don’t think there’s much in his range that KK beats.
On the second hand, while I see we have gobs of equity on the flop, I’m not sure what betting really accomplishes.
April 30, 2015
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“On the second hand, while I see we have gobs of equity on the flop, I’m not sure what betting really accomplishes.”
See, that is the point where I find difference of opinion between me and most experts. You are absolutely correct in your line that you have a lot of equity that you don’t need to bet on the flop. How I interpret it is, if I am checking the flop, it is with the intention of giving up if I don’t hit 2 pair or trips or flush on the turn. I am not seeing the river if I don’t catch the turn. My point is that you are in a drawing hand and have most equity on the flop, as there is 20% chance you catch 2 pair or trips or flush on the turn.
My line may be totally negative EV and the pros here will surely bash me or laugh at me for taking this line… but hey, that’s me 🙂
August 10, 2014
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navinbits said
My point is that you are in a drawing hand
Well, I don’t think bashing or laughing is necessary or to be expected lol!
I do think the different perspective occurs here.
Basically, I’m checking back because I probably have the best hand but don’t have a clear value target, not because I’m trying to hit a draw.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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I’m with JD on the flop check. What is your reason for ” if I am checking the flop, it is with the intention of giving up if I don’t hit 2 pair or trips or flush on the turn”?
April 30, 2015
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Andrew,
My rationale for taking that line is, if I check flop and villain bets, he could or couldn’t have a Q. So, if I check call flop and check turn and get 2-barreled, I should be open to folding depending on what odds I am getting against his bet. For all you know, he may be extracting value with a Q or a set. Of course, bet sizing would probably give an idea if he has a set. Whereas, if I have TP, i can choose to check call irrespective of whether I hit the money card or not. If I am the villain with top pair and no diamond on this board and it is checked to me, I have the power of dictating what the pot size is going to be, especially if hero is just check-calling. I love to bet 1/3-1/2 the pot with my KQ or stronger on all 3 streets if 4th diamond isn’t coming, or 1-2 streets if I am in loosely with KT.
April 30, 2015
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Whoooooops, I am sorry, I totally read the hand wrong. I thought hero is OOP in the hand. In position, I have no problems checking the flop and check-calling the turn.
On a side note, Andrew – do you agree with my line if we were OOP?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Nope, and I still can’t say that I understand your argument for it. Yes, he might have a Queen or better. Why does that mean you should bet? Betting into a Queen is at least as bad as check-calling against a Queen, and it’s quite possibly worse against a set or a flush because they might raise.
April 30, 2015
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So, my line on the hand if I am IP is,
On the flop, I have a 2nd pair with the nut draw. By betting the flop and getting called by a Q, I know that if he fires on the turn, I can consider folding. I think here, betting flop or checking flop and betting turn accomplish the same thing that the pot size is the same and bet size will be roughly the same, and our hand is still the same 2nd pair with nut draw, except that we have only one chance to get there. What is the fundamental issue if I bet when my implied equity in the pot is the highest? Just asking as an amateur as to why my line might be as bad as trying to bluff Daniel Negreanu while talking to him during the hand 
If I bet the flop here and get check-raised, I could be running against a set or 2-pair or worst case AQ. In that case, I can evaluate the size of the 3-bet and see if I can make a call based on pot odds.
August 10, 2014
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I’m lost!
Regarding this hand OOP, I think there are better candidates for bet/raising the flop in our range.
With a hand like this with so much showdown value, so many good things can happen when we check. Villain could barrel KTo, or try to get thin value with a worse jack, for example.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Right, navin what I think you are missing is that the range of hands with which V puts money into the pot will change depending on how the money goes in. If you bet and he calls, that’s the strongest range. If you check and he bets, he can bet bluffs that you are way ahead of. If the flop checks through, both of your ranges get weaker (because you bet many of your strongest hands on the flop) and you can basically proceed as though you have the nuts on most turns.
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