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Heads up 20k tournament, Call or Fold?
Third@eye
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January 16, 2014 - 8:16 pm
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 This is near the end of a €20k deepstack, everyone paid €110 and started with 10k chips. 1st place gets €6200 2nd gets €3600

 Player 1 has 1838741 chips, and holds KheartJclub

 Playe 2 has 293629

 SB: 9000 BB:18000

 Player 2 is a solid player, makes very few mistakes. And is 1st to act.

 Player 2 goes all in for 293629, do we take a shot at it here? or fold and not risk doubling him up.

markconkle
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January 16, 2014 - 9:48 pm
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Any specific reads on villain at this stack size?  If he is playing push/fold optimally, his range would be 22+,Ax+,K2s+,K6o+,Q4s+,Q9o+,J6s+,J9o+,T6s+,T8o+,96s+,98o,85s+,75s+,64s+,54s (assuming 10% antes, is that correct?) which makes you a 52.4% favorite.  Then again, if he has an openraising range and an openshoving range, it's hard to say what his shoving range would be.  

 

Any insight?

Third@eye
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January 17, 2014 - 5:02 am
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No Antes..

Player 2 has 293629 chips, an m of 12 (or 16 bb's). 

The least I have only ever seen him shove with was K6s, but he only had 10bb's when he pushed.

In this format, I would think he is playing the lower end of his range, as he knows I am very likely to come over the top of him if he min raises or to 3xbb.

markconkle
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January 17, 2014 - 7:49 am
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Ok, well it seems like a snapcall to me.  The lower end of his range consists of low pocket pairs that you're flipping with, hands like K6 that you dominate, plus undercards that you are ahead of.  If you put him on a range of 55-22,KTs-K6s,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,KJo-K8o,QTo+,JTo then you're a 63% favorite.  Basically, if you think he doesn't have JJ+,AJ+,KQ in his openshoving range, then you are never dominated and that's a pretty good metric for calling.  While it's possible to construct ranges that never dominate you but you should still fold against them, it's pretty doubtful this shove is exactly ATs-A2s,ATo-A2o.  

 

In summary, KJo is pretty close to a monster heads up with 16BB.  You should only fold it if you have a read he is very strong.

Third@eye
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January 17, 2014 - 8:10 am
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 Ok thanks, happy it was an ok call against him laugh He actually turned over A5os ..

I have equilab now so can check these ones myself…

Third@eye
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January 17, 2014 - 10:26 am
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 Another KJ hand, but against a completely different kind of player..

 This was the final table of a €10rb with a 6k prize.  5 Players left.

SB:6000 BB:12000, no ante..

 Villain has been raising alot, I have him as raising the top 40% and calling my rr or allin with the top 20-25%.

Villain has chip lead with 716531 chips and is in the Cutoff

Hero has 463161 chips and is on the button with KheartJspade.

 

1 player folds and Villain raises to 24000

Whats your move here on the button. I folded but now thinking, maybe I was better to call? He is betting any flop too…

Third@eye
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January 17, 2014 - 10:52 am
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 I maybe should have called, I'm getting 52% ev against his raising hands. And 48% against the hands he calls a shove or rr with. 

Makes the best move against this player “a call”, I think… Only problem is, i'm probably folding to his raise on the flop, alot of the time..

markconkle
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January 17, 2014 - 11:25 pm
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I don’t think that’s a problem. Any flop that you miss is a flop that his range improved versus you. Some of his hands will have hit a pair, and his hands that beat you pre-flop. Then again, there are some flops you can float or raise as a bluff too, so don’t fold TOO much.

MovesLikeDarvin

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January 23, 2014 - 12:21 pm
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calling seems fine if youre pretty sure youre flipping to win the tournament, and still have a reasonably strong chance of winning even when you lose. +EV

pckrrr
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January 24, 2014 - 5:09 pm
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Range depends alot on dynamics. Could be wider or could be tighter, could be kinda close spot when its tighter. Think these are kinda important factors to mention here.

– How does hero react to limps ( Check, shove or raise small and how does villain, if you have a raising range,  see your range (balanced/unbalanced etc.)

– How does hero react to a mr (folding alot, calling unexploitable)

 

I dont know the hu capabilities of both players but imo the correct play for villain is to m/r c somthing like A8o+A7s+KJs+KQo+77+

Open jam 66-22, A6s-A2s, K8s-K6s, A7o-A2o, KTo-K7o and limp alot.

Vs this range you have +- 51% equity what makes it a call vs described villain. 

 

However when hero has been tight villain could adjust his ranges and mr/f or limp the lower end of his open jam range which makes it a close fold

 

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