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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy Have HAVE to fold here right? $10 C…

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Have HAVE to fold here right? $10 Cubed

KeK442

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February 18, 2012 - 4:50 pm

Sorry for the bad HH here but the hand is from Bovada. I tried to clean it up a bit so that it's easier to understand.

This is after the addon period and probably about have way through with 80 people left. I'm slightly above avg in chips. Proably 30th or so.

Blinds — 300/150/30

P108(BTN) $13248 – VP:13 PFR:0 AF:2.0 W:50|0 STL:|100 3B:0| CB: N:-2782 Hands:16
P51(SB) $12626 – VP:38 PFR:0 AF:0 W:17|100 STL:|50 3B:0| CB:|50 N:-2458 Hands:16
P13(BB) $15780 – VP:13 PFR:0 AF: W:0| STL:|100 3B:0| CB:|100 N:-1610 Hands:16
P15(MP) $5157 – VP:25 PFR:13 AF:Inf. W:25|0 STL:100| 3B:0| CB:100| N:-4066 Hands:16
Me(UTG) $16301 – VP:22 PFR:15 AF:2.8 W:40|63 STL:30|40 3B:7|67 CB:100|50 N:-1764 Hands:100
P57(MP) $4981 – VP:0 PFR:0 AF: W: STL: 3B:0| CB: N:-55 Hands:2
P14(LP) $27610 – VP:50 PFR:13 AF:2.0 W:0| STL:50| 3B:0|100 CB:50|50 N:4998 Hands:16
P17(CO) $43404 – VP:31 PFR:19 AF:Inf. W:80|100 STL: 3B:14|0 CB:100| N:26146 Hands:16

Pre Flop: Me(UTG) with [7d,7h]
Me(UTG) raises 655, P57(MP) folds, P15(MP) folds, P14(LP) calls 655, P17(CO) folds, P108(BTN) folds, P51(SB) folds, P13(BB) calls 355

Flop: (6s,2d,6d) (3 players)

Pot: ~2300
P13(BB) checks, Me(MP) bets 1155, P14(LP) calls 1155, P13(BB) folds

Pot: ~4665
Turn: 9s (2 players)
Me(EP) bets 2225, P14(LP) calls 2225

Pot: ~9100
River: Qs (2 players)
Me(EP) checks, P14(LP) bets 23545,

to call is allin….

Me — WHAT DO I DO?????? If we fold we have 40BB's left.

isaacjames

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Guests

February 18, 2012 - 5:39 pm

You played strong until the turn, he might have called with a diamond draw that didnt hit a pair but other than that i just dont see him bluff shoving too often. He might even be bluffing with a better hand like 89dd. You have no choice but to fold here IMO.

I3betshove

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Guests

February 18, 2012 - 11:28 pm

Yeah think you have to fold here. Sucks, but could have alot of hands that beat you here.

Plus you still have about 30bbs if you fold, don’t think I risk my tourn on a middle pair. JMO.

KeK442

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Guests

February 18, 2012 - 11:41 pm

Just curious James, is the bet to small on the turn? I bet basically half pot. Should it be a little more? what are you betting?

Thanks!

KeK442

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Guests

February 21, 2012 - 5:04 pm

I did end up folding and showed the 77. He returned the favor and showed 33.

Well – How’d he play it?

isaacjames

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Guests

February 21, 2012 - 5:38 pm

KeK442 said:

I did end up folding and showed the 77. He returned the favor and showed 33.

Well – How'd he play it?

Preflop I get his call even if it is only to set mine

My guess is he put you on a AX or Broadway hand and (correctly at the end) figured that he could take away the pot on later streets.

After you bet the turn (which I think is the key play and correct IMO) I don't understand his call at all as he is looking like he is drawing or has a monster, and usually a check raise here is a better spot to bluff.

OTR he is shoving because obv he doesn't want a call and exerting the pressure of his bigger stack on you, but to be honest I dont think it's a profitable play since he is risking around 12K left in your stack to win 9100 so you only need to be calling around 40% of the time (just did the math in my head so not sure of exact numbers)

On your question Just curious James, is the bet to small on the turn? I bet basically half pot. Should it be a little more? what are you betting? I think your bet is fine, you might want to bet a bit more if you feel you are still best like 3200 leaving yoursefl a pot sized bet on the river but not sure if that changes the outcome.

trujustrus

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Guests

February 21, 2012 - 10:31 pm

i prefer to c/c turn and reevaluate river, i think we get more info this way imo, prob calling a blank river

SJOHN11

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Guests

February 22, 2012 - 3:09 pm

His river shove makes no sense at all, after you check to him. I mean what does he put you on that he thinks you will call your stack off with, almost 40 bb's?

It feels like a bluff imo, but im not saying i would call, its difficult to call off all your stack there — i would prob fold unless i had some reads on this guy.

hawkeyeK9

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Guests

February 22, 2012 - 3:52 pm

trujustrus said:

i prefer to c/c turn and reevaluate river, i think we get more info this way imo, prob calling a blank river

this! I am check/calling this turn and check/calling a lot of rivers. As played its a fold.

rivermen123

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Guests

February 22, 2012 - 4:41 pm

His river shove doesn't make sense, but against a dolty Bovada random I'm snap folding. This is a boat or a backdoor flush a lot more often than it is air.

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