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August 8, 2012
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So I've been trying out Andrew Brokos' method for hand reading so I'll talk you through my thoughts on this hand. Really interested to hear your thoughts street-by-street and if I'm on the right lines.
Villain is 15/10 over 41 hands. 8% 3b (1/13), Fold to cbet: 0% (0/1), AF: 2.5
Poker Stars $2.00+$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t40/t80 Blinds – 9 players – View hand 2170076
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
UTG: t3100 38.75 BBs
UTG+1: t1805 22.56 BBs
UTG+2: t7640 95.50 BBs
Hero (MP1): t4120 51.50 BBs
MP2: t8710 108.88 BBs
CO: t5415 67.69 BBs
BTN: t3300 41.25 BBs
SB: t3615 45.19 BBs
BB: t2090 26.12 BBs
Pre Flop: (t120) Hero is MP1 with 7
7
3 folds, Hero raises to t240, MP2 calls t240, 4 folds
When he flats preflop I have him on pocket pairs, broadways and connected cards. This flop hits my preflop raising range more than it hits this calling range so I decide to cbet.
Flop: (t600) 4 9
K
(2 players)
Hero bets t320, MP2 calls t320
Monsters: 44,99,KK,K9 (probably discount KK as he didn't 3b pre)
Marginal: KQ,KJ,KT,A9,Q9,J9,T9,98 (Q9 and J9 unlikely in his calling range preflop?)
Draws/air: QJ,QT,JT (can we discount these owing to incorrect pot odds?)
So he could flat on the flop with a monster as a raise from him gets me to fold out all of my air and the board is very dry.
Turn: (t1240) A (2 players)
Hero bets t720, MP2 calls t720
Again this card hits my range more than it hits his and would get him to fold a lot of his marginal hands and draws. Once again if he raises here he bets me off all of my more marginal hands.
Monsters: 44,99,A9,K9
Marginal: KQ,KJ,KT,T9,98 (now fold to two barrels) although KsYs might continue
Draws/air: QsJs,QsTs,JsTs (not sure how likely)
In game I think I checked as there were very few hands in his range that I now beat and/or that I could get to fold with a triple barrel. It all points towards very strong hands, although I'm surprised he hasn't raised at all yet. However, as I'm doing the betting, I'm pretty much putting in chips for him.
River: (t2680) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets t3040, Hero ???
Monsters: 44,99,A9,K9
Marginal: KsYs
Draws/air: QsJs,QsTs,JsTs (not sure how likely)
On the river I do feel I have to give up. But, in game I was confused as to why he overbet pot and talked myself into thinking that he could only do this with a missed draw (of which I now realise there were very few). I thought that he would bet smaller with strong hands in the hope that I pay him off, and he would check a marginal hand like Kx if it made it this far.
So the main gist of this post is not to ask if my call with 77 on the river is good (cos now I know it's not since he has more monster hands in his range than missed draws), but to see if my thought process is any good all the way through.
March 11, 2013
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I think flop was fine, and turn was a good card to fire on. Once he calls turn, you should just give up. Even if he was bluffing on river, it was probably with some pair that beats you that he turned into a bluff, since as you said there aren't many pure draws he can have.
May 31, 2012
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Yeah, easy fold c/f on the river. Villain is never bluffing here. If he is then well done, he deserves the pot.
I might even give up on the turn. The flop is dry and villain's range has tons of Kx hands after he calls. You need to fire 3 bullets to get him off Kx. The only hands I can see villain call flop but fold turn that have you beat are 9x, slow played TT-QQ and optimistic 88.
January 27, 2013
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jamo,
I would say you did a good job with Andrew's system. By the river you have nearly determined that villain has no (very few) Marginal hands left in his range. Since you have a marginal hand, you can only bluff catch or fold.
Sounds like your instinct was to fold until you noticed the size of the river bet. Now you have information on that villain and you'll have a better feel for the next battle.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Glad to see you practicing your hand reading! I too think you did a nice job with it, and although I agree that your river call isn't good for the reasons you stated, it's a great sign that you're not simply snap-folding because you were bluffing on the previous streets. Flexibility of mind and trying new things are absolutely essential to improving, even if they sometimes lead to mistakes in the short-term. We call those “growing pains.”
I would add to your flop range for him, somewhere on the border between marginal and air hands, a few unimproved Ax such as AQ and AJ. I also think you shouldn't discount AA and KK entirely.
The turn is indeed a better card for your range than for his. This is part of why it's a good idea for Villain to call flop with AQ/AJ (in addition to the fact that they may be strong enough to call in their own right) – it makes him less vulnerable to bluffs when an A comes. The only major downside to bluffing here is that your hand has very poor equity against his calling range – somewhere between 0 and 4%, to be precise. That means you need a LOT of fold equity to show a profit. The best barreling hands would be spades and QJ/QT.
You should also have a plan for the river before you bluff the turn. Have you seen my Getting Paid series? Much of the same process applies to bluffing, actually. You should have a target for the hand you are trying to take him off of, and a plan for what you will bet when to get him off of that hand. So rather than thinking of your bluffs one street at a time, you should know which turn cards you will barrel.
I wouldn't be so sure that Villain is folding all of his Kx to a half-pot bet on an obvious bluff card. It may be worth considering a river barrel to “help” him find a fold with KQ/KJ. Then again, hands with no showdown value (ie busted spade draws) will be slightly better triple barreling candidates than 77, so if you are going to have both a double-barreling and a triple-barreling range, 77 may belong in the former. Everyone once in a while, he might check back the river with a busted draw of his own and enable you to win the pot with 77, which will never happen when you have 6s 5s.
Nice post! Keep up the good work!
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