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gutshot str8 draw + nut flush draw vs supernit raise
danrose29
Midstakes Master
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June 21, 2013 - 11:25 am
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big 5.50, blinds 150/300 i have 12.5k, loose fish limps utg with 20,000 im in co with aqo

i raise to 900 supernit on button calls with 19,000 chips, sb calls with 3000 chips, flop

j102 all diamonds i have ace diamonds, i lead for 1.5k supernit raises to 3.8k?

can i assume here he has 1010 or jj orr 22 or flush? is there a case for folding flop?

i still have 9.5k if i fold here? or do i have to jam flop knowing im probably behind to set or flush?

rivermen123

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June 21, 2013 - 2:58 pm
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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  47,520  games     0.001 secs    47,520,000  games/sec

Board: Jd Td 2d
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     52.778%      52.61%     00.16%              25002            78.00   { AdQh }
Hand 1:     47.222%      47.06%     00.16%              22362            78.00   { TT, 22, AJs, KdQd, KJs, QJs, Q9s, JTs, 9d8d, AJo, KcQd, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KhQd, KsQd, KJo, JTo }

Does this look like a reasonable range for him? If so, you're ahead of his range and can get it in. (I'm assuming he's raising flop with top pair but am not sure if that's how he'd play it.)

 

If you really, truly think he always has a flush or set here, you're way behind:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  12,870  games     0.000 secs     2,574,000  games/sec

Board: Jd Td 2d
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     29.907%      29.91%     00.00%               3849             0.00   { AdQh }
Hand 1:     70.093%      70.09%     00.00%               9021             0.00   { TT, 22, KdQd, Kd9d, Qd9d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 7d6d, 6d5d }

However, the fact that he can't have the Ad, Jd, or Td cuts down dramatically on the combos of made flushes he can have. Putting someone on a range this narrow is generally a big mistake.

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