Here's how I see it (I hope the formatting comes out okay so it's legible what's monster/marginal/draw-air hands):

                       Monsters                                           Marginal                                                  Draws/Air                     

Villain:   Flop:   Trips+ (22 or 88, 78/89)                     99, 77-33 (TT+ unlikely, no 3bet pre)        fd + overs

Turn:   Trips+ (unlikely due to no bet to          99, 66-33                                                fd + overs

build the pot or charge the fd)

River:   FLUSH (very likely due to raise size)     TP (unlikely, would've just called)           overs unlikely due to raise

Hero:     Flop:    fh (22 unlikely), quads (88 unlikely)     AA-99, 77-66                                          fd + overs

trips (unlikely, only 6 combos of A8s,

78s, 89s

Turn:    fh (77,22,78 unlikely, would've bet      AA-99, 66                                               fd + overs

for value at least 1/3 pot),

trips+ (still unlikely)

River:   nothing (folded to raise)                      AA-99, 66                                               overs

I definitely put Villain on a fd that hit the river, and the Hero on marginal to air the whole way.

It's possible that if the Villain is thinking well, the Hero's line of 1/2pot cbet, ck t, 1/3 r bet is pretty weak, he could be bluffing IP here with anything.  A flop float, t ck behind, r 2.5x raise on the completed flush board probably has a good chance of succeeding, especially since Hero is weighted towards marginal and draws/air.

I think a turn cbet of 1/2pot would've been enough to discourage the villain's fd from continuing, and he would've bagged an 18.6bb pot.  Giving up the turn spelled doooooom.

Thanks for the post,

Wacky