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Good, Bad, Ugly?
ahache
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May 9, 2013 - 8:27 pm
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Thought he could lay down some aces, so I decided to rep A w/ big heart. Is this out of line 50bb deep?

Poker Stars $5.00+$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t125/t250 Blinds + t25 – 9 players – View hand 2204675
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

CO: BB = 27.7, t6930
BTN: BB = 59.3, t14829
SB: BB = 24.7, t6163
BB: BB = 52.4, t13099
UTG: BB = 32.5, t8126
UTG+1: BB = 102.9, t25720
Hero (UTG+2): BB = 55.0, t13748
MP1: BB = 63.2, t15811
MP2: BB = 133.4, t33345

Pre Flop: (t600) Hero is UTG+2 with J of clubs K of hearts
2 folds, Hero raises to t500, 1 fold, MP2 calls t500, 3 folds, BB calls t250

Flop: (t1850) 6 of hearts 3 of hearts A of hearts (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t750, MP2 folds, BB raises to t2000, Hero raises to t13223 all in, BB calls t10574 all in

Turn: (t26998) T of diamonds (2 players – 2 are all in)

River: (t26998) 9 of spades (2 players – 2 are all in)

Final Pot: t26998
BB shows 8 of hearts 9 of hearts (a flush, Ace high)
Hero shows J of clubs K of hearts (high card Ace)
BB wins t26998

CCuster 911
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May 9, 2013 - 11:16 pm
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I would play it the similarly a majority of the time(would need more reads on villain to make a more concrete statement).  There are a couple things I want to bring to your attention to help in future spots though.

 

First with a nut flush draw you can never be drawing dead. In fact you are pretty much never worse than 25% in a HU pot(In this case not really worse than 28%).  However in this spot, where its a 3 flush board, and an A, you are also RARELY ahead.  Ocassionally you might see someone show up with Qhx, but not that often. 

 

If he would have shoved over your c bet, this is probably a fold.  A lot of the value in flush draws, especially nut flush draws when you are never dead, is fold equity, and value versus worse flushes.  In this spot once he raises you, you can rule out a lot of his worse bare flush draws, in the sense that he likely has at elast a pair with all flush draws. 

 

Lets examine the Fold Equity in this spot.  Well first thing we can look at his position, BB, which means we expect a pretty wide range.  He could have a wide array of hands, including a lot of flushes, and two pair type hands.  How many hands are raising us though?  He could feasibly raise AxJh/AxTh type hands, he probably raises all flopped flushes(or at least raises it most of the time), and almost always raises his two pair type hands. 

 

Then there are times he will raise as a semi bluff or even pure bluff.  This will happen somewhat frequently on monotone boards.  This is because its dangerous for the person facing the raise to call down light, because your not getting hands liek what you have to fold, and even if you may be ahead, the board can easily get worse.  So when he raises we expect you to reraise or fold majority of the time(there are def hands you can/should call though!).

 

Its really hard to know how often this happens without more info on villain though.

 

Value from lower flushes in this hand probably isnt that great though.  The only time this happens is when he has the Qh and occasionally the Jh, but the problem is we are winning a stack when we hit, but how much does it cost us when we miss?  We also have to think about the heart COSTING us money against all his non flush hands.  If we call here.  We hit turn about 20% of the time, and miss the other 80%.  However of the 20% we do hit, how often does he have a hand that pays us off? And of the 80% of the time we miss how often can we afford to call another barrell?  Will he ever continue bluffing in this spot?

 

These are some things you need to think about.

 

In the end, I dont mind your play readless, I think this is a spot where we cant really call.  We have no gin cards outside of hearts, which probably cost(in the sense of killing action) us money more than win us money.  Sure a J or K may be a good card for us, but it could also just spell out more trouble, and we can no longer get any hands that we beat to fold considering SPR after a turn bet from villain is just too low.

 

HOWEVER! I do not liek your shove, I much prefer to just make it liek 4.7-5k and shove the turn if he makes the horrible msitake of calling.  I would make this size raise with the top and the bottom of my gii range in this spot.  AKA my good flushes and my hands like this.  So in the end I like raising here, to maxmize FE and add balance to the top of my range.

 

Getting in the nut flush draw on the flop is usually not a mistake.

For Coaching - ccuster911@gmail.com - HH Reviews/Leak Finder(HEM or PT)/Concept Discussion

ahache
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May 10, 2013 - 2:12 am
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That's a great analysis, thanks a lot CCuster. I agree that a strong looking 3bet on the flop is the best choice. We need to maximize FE here. That's generally my style when semi-bluffing. This is a pretty awkward spot as we rarely flop nfd with Kxo. It's much more clear cut with Axs. I think my logic is flawed by pushing the flop, as the hands I'm trying to fold are rarely check raising here.

 

I'm finding a lot of low players are constantly perceiving my min raises pre and smallish c-bets on the flop as weakness. I'm happy with the induced action that results, but the problem I've been having lately is I always need to factor a greater hand range. This is what's excusing plays like this in my mind, which I think is becoming a big leak.

 

I took 2nd in this tournament last week with the help of some AA cracking magic in the mid/late levels lol. Stacks tend to become inflated around the third/fourth hour, so I feel it's crutial to have fighting chips and not be stuck in 3bet shove mode. I was hoping to get 100 deep and start mixing it up for a big stack.

 

Thanks again for the analysis, there's some good concepts here I need to be more aware of.

MASTERHOLMES
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May 10, 2013 - 3:24 am
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think of how great the result would of been with king jack suited,, then the small baller would of small balled himself as he stack off.

it is for that reason that your minraise with king jack off suit for me wasn't the way to go, you hand is easily dominated and what are you trying to flop ? two pair, trips or some sort of open ended straight draw.

what your a minraise does is invite lesser hands to play that are lesser preflop but postflop they can become minimonster.

you say on the flop that you put him on aces.  i am assuming that you mean ace jack or something along those lines, for if he had aces he would of raised preflop to narrow the field.

so on that flop you have to put the person on two pair, ace 6 ace 3/set of 3s, of 6s/or any kind of made flush. (because two callers and he reraised showing strength and he had bb special sort to speak)

as it is against that hand you are still 28 percent to win the hand but for 50 bbs deep it isnt' a hand I would like to press.

 

i think for 50 bbs play we want to set it up so junk flushes are willing to stack off to us, and two pair vs one pair.

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