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Going for value with top set (QQ) against four players.
derSchwartz
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April 6, 2015 - 11:39 pm
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Hello TPE,

I am curious about this situation that came up a few days ago in a turbo tourney. I don't have reads on villains except for their HUD stats that I will offer.

Blinds 120/600/1200

UTG) Hero, 35.9K 

MP) 26.7K

HJ) 39.6k n=29, 46/31/14.3 

CO) 10.7K

BTN) 20.2K  n=32 , 25/21/6.3 no squeezes yet

SB) 26.8K n=12, 58/30/0  no squeezes yet

BB) 24.2K n=315, 24/16/5.0  3.8% squeeze

All post antes, SB posts 600, BB posts 1200

Hero is dealt QdiamondQclub

Hero raises to 2470

1 fold, HJ calls 2470, 1 fold, BTN calls 2470, SB calls 1870. BB calls 1270

Flop (13190) comes 2clubQspade7spade

I have the nuts on an unconnected board, two to a suit and four players to place on ranges.

HJ could be pretty wide.  I don't know much about him except that he has played almost half his hands so far.  22-AA, A5o+, AXs, all broadway, K7s+, and all suited connectors.

Button should have a narrower but not top heavy range because his stack is lower at 17BB .. he has position, but shouldn't be calling too often here.  I give him 22-JJ, A7o-AQo, A5s-AQs, KQo, KTs-KQs, QJs

SB is OOP for the whole hand and shouldn't be calling all too often, but I give him the same range as button.
BB has great pot odds and can certainly defend very wide.

I want to get money in the middle, and there are plenty of people in the hand, upping my chances of getting action. Should I be targeting all sorts of pocket pairs? Unfortunately I have blockers to the only high pair to flop on the board. This suggests maybe I should check to let people catch up. But if I check, I wonder if it’s too obvious a slow play.
Hero?
I will spoil that I chose to bet.
Have an excellent evening.

hawkeyeK9
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April 7, 2015 - 12:22 am
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I like small bets here that are really enticing to my opponents. A bet of 3500 or so sounds good. I prefer this because you have the nuts and it’s hard for anyone to have anything. Checking is less desirable because no one showed pre flop initiative and check backs are likely.

BionicApe
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April 7, 2015 - 4:25 am
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I think with four other players in the pot even a 1/3 pot c-bet looks pretty strong, but I'd be happy to give them a chance to disbelieve me.

Check-raising with four other people in the pot not only runs the risk of everyone checking behind but it also reeketh of nuts. A reasonable course of action if you strongly feel like your table is in need of a serious tea-bagging, but probably suboptimal play.

madpenguin12
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April 7, 2015 - 11:02 am
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This is a good post.  I'm also not sure what I would do here.  I think it mostly depends on how aggro I think the others opponents are.  Hero has ~30 BB, while SB, BTN, and BB all have less than 24 BB.  Is the button likely to bet here if it is checked to him?   If so, I would be okay with checking, and you can smooth call his bet.  However, with the 2 spades out there, I would think that a small bet would induce a raise from a high flush draw type hand.  Do you want to pot control and just smooth call a bet?  Do you want to give a potential spade draw a free card? Did SB and BB check after the flop to you? 

Personally, I do not think you can go wrong with a C bet here that's on the small side.  This might induce someone to raise you with a semi-bluff or a bluff, or you could get raised by a hand like KQ or AQ (even though it is unlikely and they probably would have raised you with AQ). Given the relatively low stacks and that it is a turbo (I think people are more aggressive in a turbo), you could just C bet here to see where you are.  

 

I also see the benefits of playing a small ball approach.  It is unlikely that they have a spade draw AND that a spade would hit on the turn.  Someone having the spade draw is possible here with 4 others in the pot. That being the case, a check could induce a bluff and you can call on the flop and proceed from there.  If a hand like 89 or 87 calls you, they may think their second pair is best.  if KQ, AQ calls you, your check could have them thinking they have the best hand the entire way and you can let them bet into you and you can raise them on the turn (when a harmless card comes out) or better yet, give them an opportunity to hit their 2 pair.

 

Which approach did you decide to go with and what would other TPE members do in this position?  I am interested to hear from our TPE pros as well.

Kalculater
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April 7, 2015 - 6:54 pm
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derSchwartz said:

I want to get money in the middle, and there are plenty of people in the hand, upping my chances of getting action.

How dramatically do you think this board can change by the river? How many streets of value do you think you can get on this board?

I would probably think we can get 2 streets from most hands that are going to be in villains calling range/s.

 

derSchwartz said:

  But if I check, I wonder if it's too obvious a slow play.
 

What is your range for checking? Are you checking hands that completely whiff? How is a check too obvious a slowplay if you are checking alot of your range already?

 

hawkeyeK9 said:

I like small bets here that are really enticing to my opponents.

 

Are you betting small with your entire betting range? I like a slighlty bit bigger of a bet to get max value from PPs and draws.

 

Alot of the replies on this topic remind me of the latest article I read from our own Andrew Brokos (albeit, it was on 2+2 magazine). In particular this resonated: One approach I often see is players who argue for a particular bet size based on what they want their opponent to do. The argument goes something like, “We'd really like Villain to fold, so let's bet $X.” Or, “We have the nuts, so let's bet $Y to induce a call.”

 

You can find this article titled What do Ranges Want?, here: …..ranges.php

derSchwartz
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April 7, 2015 - 7:17 pm
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Thanks for the replies.

I don't think I did enough thinking in game about what other hands I would be checking here.  I guess there are a reasonable number. I didn't really know for a fact that a check would be too obvious, but certainly wonder. 

I also didn't do enough in game thinking about the implications of at least one very wide range (in the BB) because this player can have lots of pairs of 7s, and slightly more flush draws than each of the other players .. also all the low pocket pairs.  I feel these hands are unlikely to bet though.  This makes me think I need to get value from them by making a bet that looks like I'm trying to make a bad or overly clever Cbet.

The  biggest thing I think I overlooked though was the relatively short effective stacks all around.   If I wanted to look weak and get the villains to call or come over the top of my raise (a mistake Andrew is going to address in the link Alex posted?) I should have bet an amount that would have looked stabby and represented less than a third of the effective stacks.  I say this because I am trying to play as one of the villains and it seems like if I faced a bet for a third of my stack, and that is actually slightly over half pot .. a confident bet against four players, I would not feel like the bettor is folding.

For this reason and others I think I went too big, sizing it at 6,905.  It's too big to look like I am ready to fold to anything .. largely because the pot is already so big and there isn't much for my range to be afraid of on this board.  I think something like a quarter pot would have been good.

Foucault

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April 8, 2015 - 12:57 am
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Nice post, Kalc. As I read your post, I was thinking, “Oh great, he is already saying all the stuff I was gonna say,” and then I got to the bottom 😉

Kalculater
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April 8, 2015 - 1:56 am
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Foucault said:

Nice post, Kalc. As I read your post, I was thinking, “Oh great, he is already saying all the stuff I was gonna say,” and then I got to the bottom 😉

I must just be a Brokos superfan I guess haha… Enjoying the (awaited) new series Andrew. Looking forward to the next few weeks and getting into the meat of it.

SIGABA
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April 11, 2015 - 12:29 am
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With 13190 in the pot and the stacks that you are playing against, I would bet 5111.

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