Hey guys,
I was always a fan of the following question posed to me by a friend some time ago now.
Question: Suppose you arrive at a spot on the flop where the SPR (stack to pot ratio) is 1. For example $100 stacks with $100 in the pot, and the board is QJT rainbow and you have QQ, your opponent OoP exposes AK. What do you do when
a) He shoves
b) He checks
c) He bets $20
Does he know he exposed his hand? I'm assuming he doesn't (and that he also doesn't know what we hold).
These are my answers for a tournament, with an eye on stack preservation, and keeping in mind that we have no fold equity.
a) when he shoves, you're getting 2-1 on the call ($200 in pot, $100 for you to call) and you have right around 35% equity, which is more than what you need. you're very slightly +cEV here. call.
b) check
c) call because you don't have fold equity on a raise since he has the current nuts.
In a cash game, the answer is absolutely get it in for all three. Right?
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
990 games 0.000 secs 198,000 games/sec
Board: Qs Jd Tc
Dead:equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.101% 64.65% 00.45% 640 4.50 { AdKh }
Hand 1: 34.899% 34.44% 00.45% 341 4.50 { QcQh }
Doesn't matter what the opponent does either AB or C we're getting it in here always 100% of the time and the opponent will call 100% of the time.
As river mentioned it is +ev
For every 100 times this occurs
You will win 35 Units x 2 = 70 Units
You will lose 65 Units x 1 = 65 Units
A net profit of 5 units.
If you consider most casino table games have an edge of 51% House and 49% Player, you couldn't get your chips in quick enough.
Now if you want to consider ICM and tournament life etc, well that's another subject all together and something for each individual players risk tolerance.
Tiny_Molester said:
“We all know open shoving 100bb with AA pf is +cEV but we don’t do it because?”
The difference between the above question and the original question is that in your original question we already know the villian has the nuts and is never folding and we can confidently get all the chips in post flop knowing the villian is calling. There's no need to get tricky or work out how to extract more chips from him. We know what's in the pot, we know how much he has, we know his hole cards, get em in one way or another. It is highest optimal play.
If we check when he checks and we brick the turn we are not +ev anymore to get it all in, it drops to about 23%.
If the villian knows we know what he has, and then we shove; if he has half a brain he’ll also know our holdings, but he is still never folding.
The “maximum” optimal +ev play is to get it all in post flop whether it is A B or C, just get it in. There is only the pot and his stack to gain.
Ok some preliminaries first:
Our equity on flop is 34.4%, our chance of improvement on the turn is 7/45 ~ 15.6% (corresponding to the board pairing), our chance of improving upon seeing a brick turn we have 10/44 ~ 22.7% on non A or K turns and on turn A or K we have ~23.9% including chops this averages our equity on turn blanks to 22.9%.
So if villain shoves the flop we are getting 2:1 and it is definately +cEV to get the money in
EV(Shove on Flop) = .344($200) – .656($100) = $3.2, so this is a marginal +cEV spot
Firstly lets assume that villain will ship all turn blanks and ck/f all board pairing (obviously this is only realistic when he can see our whole cards however the assumption will suffice for our purposes) then
EV(Check back facing check)= .156($100) = $15.6
So without even considering turn strategies in the instances he doesn’t see our cards already the
EV(Check back facing check) > EV(Shove when checked to) by a factor 4.875, which definately makes shoving the flop when checked to a vastly inferior play compared to checking.
So I know this spot is a toy example, however I think there are merits to discussing spots where we are IP and have x% equity in the hand but zero fold equity or opponent has a range that are unlikely to fold, could it be more profitable to check? For example holding AK in 3bet pots IP where we have missed and villain has a stack that is unlikely to fold…
Most Users Ever Online: 2780
Currently Online:
67 Guest(s)
Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)
Top Posters:
bennymacca: 2616
Foucault: 2067
folding_aces_pre_yo: 1133
praetor: 1033
theginger45: 924
P-aire 146: 832
Turbulence: 768
The Riceman: 731
duggs: 591
florianm1: 588
Newest Members:
Tillery999
sdmathis89
ne0x00
adrianvaida2525
Anteeater
Laggro
Forum Stats:
Groups: 4
Forums: 24
Topics: 12705
Posts: 75003
Member Stats:
Guest Posters: 1063
Members: 12008
Moderators: 2
Admins: 5
Administrators: RonFezBuddy, Killingbird, Tournament Poker Edge Staff, ttwist, Carlos
Moderators: sitelock, sitelock_1