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Fundamental EV question
Tiny_Molester
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March 9, 2012 - 12:02 am
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Hey guys,

I was always a fan of the following question posed to me by a friend some time ago now.

Question: Suppose you arrive at a spot on the flop where the SPR (stack to pot ratio) is 1. For example $100 stacks with $100 in the pot, and the board is QJT rainbow and you have QQ, your opponent OoP exposes AK. What do you do when

 

a) He shoves

b) He checks

c) He bets $20

rivermen123
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March 9, 2012 - 11:26 am
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Does he know he exposed his hand? I'm assuming he doesn't (and that he also doesn't know what we hold).

These are my answers for a tournament, with an eye on stack preservation, and keeping in mind that we have no fold equity.

a) when he shoves, you're getting 2-1 on the call ($200 in pot, $100 for you to call) and you have right around 35% equity, which is more than what you need. you're very slightly +cEV here. call.

b) check

c) call because you don't have fold equity on a raise since he has the current nuts.

 

In a cash game, the answer is absolutely get it in for all three. Right?

 

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

 990  games     0.000 secs   198,000  games/sec

Board: Qs Jd Tc
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     65.101%      64.65%     00.45%                640             4.50   { AdKh }
Hand 1:     34.899%      34.44%     00.45%                341             4.50   { QcQh }

rivermen123
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March 9, 2012 - 2:37 pm
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The more I think about this, the more I realize that the answer is to get it in 100%. Especially since you titled the thread “Fundamental EV question.” We are required to get it in here because the math dictates that it is +EV.

Donskey
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March 9, 2012 - 8:05 pm
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Doesn't matter what the opponent does either AB or C we're getting it in here always 100% of the time and the opponent will call 100% of the time.

As river mentioned it is +ev

 

For every 100 times this occurs

You will win 35 Units x 2 = 70 Units

You will lose 65 Units x 1 = 65 Units

 

A net profit of 5 units.

 

If you consider most casino table games have an edge of 51% House and 49% Player, you couldn't get your chips in quick enough.

 

Now if you want to consider ICM and tournament life etc, well that's another subject all together and something for each individual players risk tolerance.

Tiny_Molester
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March 9, 2012 - 10:33 pm
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Indeed it is +cEV to get the money in on the flop as cited by various equity relationships. However is it the most optimal? How would we go about maximising our cEV in this spot?

We all know open shoving 100bb with AA pf is +cEV but we don't do it because?

Donskey
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March 10, 2012 - 4:05 am
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Tiny_Molester said:

“We all know open shoving 100bb with AA pf is +cEV but we don’t do it because?”

 

The difference between the above question and the original question is that in your original question we already know the villian has the nuts and is never folding and we can confidently get all the chips in post flop knowing the villian is calling. There's no need to get tricky or work out how to extract more chips from him. We know what's in the pot, we know how much he has, we know his hole cards, get em in one way or another. It is highest optimal play.

 

If we check when he checks and we brick the turn we are not +ev anymore to get it all in, it drops to about 23%.

 

If the villian knows we know what he has, and then we shove; if he has half a brain he’ll also know our holdings, but he is still never folding.

 

The “maximum” optimal +ev play is to get it all in post flop whether it is A B or C, just get it in. There is only the pot and his stack to gain.

Tiny_Molester
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March 10, 2012 - 11:12 pm
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Ok some preliminaries first:

Our equity on flop is 34.4%, our chance of improvement on the turn is 7/45 ~ 15.6% (corresponding to the board pairing), our chance of improving upon seeing a brick turn we have 10/44 ~ 22.7% on non A or K turns and  on turn A or K we have ~23.9% including chops this averages our equity on turn blanks to 22.9%.

So if villain shoves the flop we are getting 2:1 and it is definately +cEV to get the money in

EV(Shove on Flop) = .344($200) – .656($100) = $3.2, so this is a marginal +cEV spot

Firstly lets assume that villain will ship all turn blanks and ck/f all board pairing (obviously this is only realistic when he can see our whole cards however the assumption will suffice for our purposes) then

EV(Check back facing check)= .156($100) = $15.6

So without even considering turn strategies in the instances he doesn’t see our cards already the

EV(Check back facing check) > EV(Shove when checked to) by a factor 4.875, which definately makes shoving the flop when checked to a vastly inferior play compared to checking.

So I know this spot is a toy example, however I think there are merits to discussing spots where we are IP and have x% equity in the hand but zero fold equity or opponent has a range that are unlikely to fold, could it be more profitable to check? For example holding AK in 3bet pots IP where we have missed and villain has a stack that is unlikely to fold…

 

bennymacca
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March 10, 2012 - 11:33 pm
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cool thread, like it

Theviolator
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March 11, 2012 - 2:20 pm
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yeah I can dig threads like this

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