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November 12, 2013
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What's up TPE Nation!
I don't use a HUD atm on Bovada so please bare with me. Somewhat early in a low buy in tourney (turbo), about 350 runners. I have worked my stack up to 5200 chips (13th position). Blinds are 100-200. Villian 1 is in the HJ with about 18bb. Villian 2 on the button has about 25bb. I am utg+1 and stare down at 9h9s. I raise 2.5x and it folds around to the highjack who calls, button calls and all else fold. Flop comes TsTd8s. I c-bet 800, HJ calls and button raises to 1200. I went to my time bank on this one. I had seen both these players play very thin on a few hands that they had to show down and wasn't feeling that either had a ten. Perhaps AT but with 2 tens out there I just wasn't buying it. If I'm wrong then hats off to them. I truly felt I was ahead at this point but was concerned with potential draws out there. I had visions of Andrew's hand reading vids and I remember one specific thing that he said, when in doubt bet and bet big. So whether right or wrong I had convinced myself this was a fold or shove. Sometimes “when the chips are down” it is truly difficult to do what you think is right. I felt in my gut that the HJ would fold to a shove and I could see the button holding something like AK,AQ,KQs-K8s,KJs,QJs. I really look forward to hearing from all of you and how you would play this. I will come back in a few days and post the results.
Thanks,
October 30, 2013
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Looks a like you’ve gotten into quite the scenario here. To me I’d think you’d have to widen your opponents range here. Given ones late and ones the button, they’re in prime position to show up with a strange hand. You’d think if they had top premiums you’d be facing a 3bet PF, so assuming there not slow playing a monster, I’d think middle ground 88-22 KQ-87 or even lower if they like the suiteds. The 3bet by the B seems very small and weak to me(trying to scare maybe), but given the HJs call I’d say you’re facing several drawing hands with high paint a possibility. Im torn between jamming and folding, I don’t think calling here is correct. If I calculated correctly you have just under 50% equity in this pot. I’d side with my gut and and go with the jam hoping to fold the HJ an hope the B shows up with A8 or a weak draw. I’m still trying to learn and analyze like everyone else but there’s my two cents. Look forward to the conclusion! GL
March 26, 2013
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Preflop a couple of things strike me; 1) You could consider preflop raising a little smaller than 2.5x at this stage but it is ok. 2) HJ with 18bbs makes a fairly strange call. It is very possible this could be strength trying to elicit a squeeze behind if the button and the blinds all have say 15-25bbs range. 3) Button probably has the odds to call more speculatively now the HJ has flatted although it might still be thin with 25bbs. I do not think you can totally rule out big hands at this stage from HJ but I think button would almost certainly raise premiums so is likely to be holding something speculative.
Flop is not bad for us although it does hit both of the villains a fair bit as well with loads of straight draws, flush draws, possible trips as a T has to be in their range plenty enough. Overpairs do not remain out of the question here and neither does 88 for a boat. Given that we are marginally ahead or way behind here I think I prefer to check and see what develops as when you get raised on this board you really have a marginal hand oop with no idea what the other two guys have. I think you could safely check/call flop if one player bets (particularly if it is the button betting) and fold if the action is any heavier.
As played, once you have bet and been called + raised then I think the chances of you winning this hand are pretty slim. I don't really like jamming as you probably need f/eq to make that work and I am not convinced both villains will fold here. If you happen to jam and get called I expect you to be up against either a very strong draw or a T / 8 / overpair most of the time against most pairs of villains.
Obviously there are exceptions to that if the two villains are very bad and that is where instinct about the opponents comes in but you would need to be very very sure that these guys could be doing this with very weak hands that you have f/eq against and / or good equity against if called. Personally, I would fold and preserve my 20bbs stack for a better spot.
February 28, 2013
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IMO button has a wide enough range that includes loads of tens.. He’s having to put in 500 to a pot already containing 1300 with the blinds still to act and juice it some more, no raise suggests to me all manner of hands that hit a flop hard and crack pocket pair etc… Those tasty little suited one gappers that are great to play in position, win loads if you hit hard, easy to get away from if you done..
I fold to the flop raise and wait for a better spot especially without a read that the button is a bit crazy…
On a side note if you c bet 800 surely min raise is 1600 so how does button raise to 1200 unless I’ve miss read and you mean he raised an additional 1200 to 2k…? In which case I def fold.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Hi Don, thanks for posting this hand. Just to clarify, the thing about “when in doubt, bet big” was specific to value betting. In other words, when you think you probably have the best and aren't sure whether or not to bet, err on the side of betting. And if you aren't sure how much to bet, err on the side of betting bigger. Your situation is more complicated because it's not at all clear that you have the best hand.
I'll start by saying that you need to have a plan when you bet the flop. You might not be prepared for exactly this circumstance, but you should have in mind why you are betting and roughly what you hope will happen. To make better hands fold? Probably not. To make worse hands call? That's possible, though it's best if you have a clear idea of what hands exactly you're hoping to get action from. To make worse hands raise? Not really what you're expecting them to do, I wouldn't think. To make worse hands with decent equity fold? There's some value in folding out overcards.
So it seems like you can bet and expect to be in good shape (though not always ahead) against calling ranges. A raise isn't really what you're looking for when you bet, though.
Unfortunately, hand reading isn't as simple as “with 2 tens out there I just wasn't buying it”. Yes, trips tend to be unlikely, but the player who raises has to have something, so if it's not trips, what is it? In a heads up pot, I'd be a little more inclined to think he might raise as a bluff or with a worse hand thinking he could be ahead. With a bet and a call in front, though, I think his raise looks awfully strong. Trips may be combinatorically unlikely, but here I think they make more sense than anything else given the action.
I'd fold.
November 12, 2013
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Hey Guys,
Thanks so much for your input, it really is appreciated. First let me clarify a point Keith brought up, he did raise to 1600, typo on my part. Kil, Poking, Keith and Andrew thank you for taking the time to respond. Andrew, you know I view you as my mentor so let me clarify what I was trying to accomplish. I had noticed that both these players called down thin on more than 1 hand so really my goal if I were to shove is to get worse hands with some equity to fold and take the pot. I think that most of you feel a fold would be best here and as I look back on it now I tend to agree. Not the results…….
I shoved, HJ folded, button called and turned over K8 no spades and hit his king on the turn for better two pair lol. After, the hand and as my chips slid to his pile, he commented “hell of a call, bad luck” lol.
Anyhow was a really fun hand, guess the fold would have been correct.
Thanks again guys, talk to you all soon.
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