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Full house on super wet river
PlasticPearl
Grinding Micros
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April 19, 2015 - 11:04 am
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Hey all, thoughts appreciated on the below hand please. It's the first level of a $1 MTT. I've lost a few chips by opening AK, c-betting when missed and folding to a raise. Nothing else has happened at the table so we are readless.

I have been working on putting a few weaker hands in my EP opening range in the early stages to balance a little bit so I opened up T9s and am flatted by MP1 and CO. I would imagine at least one of them has a pocket pair 22-TT, and the other one maybe two broadways.

Flop is 9dTsJs. I bet 45% pot. Smaller than I would usually bet on a draw heavy board with two villains as I am pricing in their draws. However I do think it is likely one of them already has a made straight or a set and I am prepared to fold to a raise, so am preserving chips. In retrospect, I think check/calling would have been the better option here. 

Turn is 9s which is a pretty awesome card for me as I have a full house, and the flush draw has come in. I bet 33% pot, this time deliberately pricing in flush draws/straight draws, and wanting to bring both villains with me to build the pot. Also sized my bet to set up a river jam which I am going to do on pretty much every card except a T, J, Qs or 8s. I get one call and one fold. Struggling to think what the villain is calling with twice on this wet a board. I think a straight is likely (KQ, 78), or a small flush (again a small suited connector or a suited ace rag).

The river is the very ugly Qs so someone could very well have a straight flush. I thought about betting but struggled to think what I could get value from. Maybe someone with As would call with the nut flush but I struggle to think how As gets to the river. Maybe a suited ace rag or AJo/AQo. So I check with the plan to evaluate the bet. I am folding to a jam or a large bet. In the end the bet is so small I have to call.

Thoughts on this hand appreciated! 

Hero (UTG+1): 1,254
MP: 1,445 (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
MP+1: 1,522 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
MP+2: 1,455 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
CO: 1,445 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
BTN: 1,402 (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 5)
SB: 1,401 (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
BB: 2,004 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
UTG: 1,572 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)

9 players post ante of 3, SB posts SB 10, BB posts BB 20

Pre Flop: (pot: 57) Hero has  9club Tclub 

fold, [color=red]Hero raises to 60[/color], MP calls 60, fold, fold, CO calls 60, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (237, 3 players)  9diamond Tspade Jspade 
[color=red]Hero bets 140[/color], MP calls 140, CO calls 140

Turn: (657, 3 players)  9spade 
[color=red]Hero bets 223[/color], fold, CO calls 223

River: (1,103, 2 players)  Qspade 
Hero checks, [color=red]CO bets 300[/color], Hero calls 300
Foucault

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April 19, 2015 - 4:52 pm
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Seems like a lot of worst-case scenario thinking here, especially on the flop. I agree with folding to a flop raise, but that doesn’t mean you should make a smaller-than-usual bet. There are plenty of second-best hands that will call a bet and plenty of draws as well. If your opponents did flop a straight/set (which is certainly possible but not “likely”, as it is far easier to flop a pair or draw), check-calling isn’t going to save you any money relative to bet-folding.

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