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villain is very good (opr top 50 on ongame) and an active player on this ft, some orbits earlier he opened from the same pos and folded to my shove.my play on the ft was tight (but not overly) but aggressive (already 3bshoved a couple times and 1 time 4b)
my first thought was instashove, but could a fold here be better because of icm reasons?
2nd question: with what hands do you expect villain to call?
Ongame Network $5,000 Canadian Daily No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t1250/t2500 Blinds + t250 – 8 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
FolaPR (MP1): BB = 9.3, t23177
LeroyWng (MP2): BB = 13.5, t33656
Opex Alex (CO): BB = 15.4, t38541
mwnnj (BTN): BB = 34.0, t85004
Hero (SB): BB = 16.5, t41194
monkey8balls (BB): BB = 6.8, t16907
dave2906 (UTG): BB = 36.9, t92224
swfclad83 (UTG+1): BB = 27.3, t68297
Pre Flop: (t5750) Hero is SB with 6
6
1 fold, swfclad83 raises to t5500 all fold, hero?
You have an image of being very aggressive, in which case the villain may think this is his time to make the call with a medium strength hand but you say the viallain is very active and presumably getting away with it, so if you do shove here then I think the villain is going to be calling tighter than normal as from his perspective he doesn't need to risk a flip when he is chipping up fairly easily.
I'd say this is a fairly close spot and may come down to how much you are willing to risk to get to the top 3. This seems a pretty good spot to 3bet shove so if you fold then you are effectively waiting for premiums as you can't afford to open/fold. If you do shove then you stand to pick up 3.5bbs, but you risk getting called in which case you have to hope to be racing and to then win the race. I think I prefer the more aggressive route in principle, I don't love the hand but I am shoving.
Active or not, he is still opening this UTG+1 which is usually strong. Unless he is opening early position every orbit we need to be somewhat cautious. Even though you said he folded to your raise last time in this same position, I think he could easily have it this time and gonna call you. Think about your FE, you have a lot less FE because you have a history with this guy of making this move. You could go for it and hope for a flip but I would pass this one up.
I think he calls AT+, KJs+, or any pair. Just because you are making this move in the same spot vs him.
Late reply..
However fwiw I think we can find a better spot than this.
Other than dave and mw anyone can knock anyone out and move up.
Considering it was an EP raise and the effective stack sizes, villain has to call you most of the time and we will be racing at absolute best if not crushed by a bigger pair.
I think a villain of the stats you have mentioned would be rarely opening 22 – 55 with 27bbs OOP with all the reshoves behind.
UL GG anyways.
rIkTa said:
Late reply..
However fwiw I think we can find a better spot than this.
Don't pass up +ev spots like this in hopes of better ones. Villain is almost certainly calling vs the two short stacks, but you still have FE here. I'd take QQ+ AK out of his range, he's most likely minbetting them to induce. Avoiding flips vs stronger players makes little sense to me. Get it in here, the villain should be concerned about calling off to flip, not you.
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