This is my first post here, hopefully I do this correctly and don't get flamed right at the start. This hand happened 2 weeks ago, and it keeps popping back in my head. The main reason for asking about this hand, is more of a sanity check, and as much as I hate “standard” …it was what I thought at the time and after a week of doubt starting to kreep in, I confirmed at least according to ICM, it was also right. I am mostly new to MTT's…
My question really is about my thought process, and if this is a correct way to think about the hand.
We are the 4th hand into the Final table, I am feeling comfortable and happy to be 4th in chips. Matta Tott and I have played quite a few hands together through the tournement, and I respect his play. He min raises UTG, and not a lot can be read into this, other than it has been pretty much his standard raise, regardless of holdings. I am assuming he is doing this to polarize is raising range, so I will need to be seeing more how the hand will play out, to have any real idea, but for him to be raising UTG he has a little something, maybe any PP, A10+, A9s+.
Nevada_JT has also been at my tables off and on during the tourney, and from what I can tell seems to be a solid player, leaning a little more on the aggresive side. When he shoved, I was thinking AK, AQ, AJs, pairs maybe as low as 9's. I thought less likely AA,KK, maybe QQ with Matta min raising UTG, I think he might have slowed down and tried to get a little more from his hand, but enough to bump the rest of us out.
JT has less chips than me, I feel like I am ahead of his shoving range, and if he did shove hands that dominate me, true I am hurting, but still not out, a little fold equity left and almost out of the blinds for an ICM shove.
Now I don't see how I can just call here, and maybe this is something I need to rethink about? How could I simply call, when a shove shows even more strength and can get some small to med pairs to fold? If I call and the only person left that can knock me out shoves, how can I ever fold with putting that much into the pot and getting those odds?
If JT is holding any A or any K, the chances of Matta having AA or KK is slim with me also having AK. Sure I am losing some outs if JT also has those very cards, IF Matta has somethign like JJ-QQ, but I still have my straight and flush hopes 🙂
If anyone folds here, or calls and then folds to a reshove, please share the thought process. I feel the majority of your responses will be “standard” or “yep .. what else ya gonna do”, but I am also hoping there is a flaw in my thinking so I can have a new way to look at something.
Their stats and mine are roughly the same, HEM is being difficult atm so Iam going on memory 22/17 VPP/PFR (give or take ) over the hands together
Poker Stars $10+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t62500/t125000 Blinds + t15625 – 9 players – View hand 2476647
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
M@gic_master (MP1): BB = 10.6, t1328113
Nevada_JT (MP2): BB = 11.5, t1440439
pKrtequila7 (CO): BB = 0.6, t75554
len6789 (BTN): BB = 7.4, t929640
Paschaaaa (SB): BB = 8.9, t1117362
Hero (BB): BB = 17.6, t2195426
MattaTott (UTG): BB = 26.6, t3321009
Rievers2860 (UTG+1): BB = 32.4, t4052026
ZorbasI (UTG+2): BB = 17.5, t2184431
Pre Flop: (t328125) Hero is BB with A K
MattaTott raises to t250000, 3 folds, Nevada_JT raises to t1424814 all in, 3 folds, Hero…