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September 15, 2015
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WPN, 5,000/10,000 blinds, 1,000 ante No Limit Hold’em Tournament, 7 Players
SB: 536,059 (53.6 bb)
BB: 380,838 (38.1 bb)
Hero (MP1): 158,124 (15.8 bb) Nitting it up at like 12/10
MP2: 146,329 (14.6 bb)
Villain MP3: 126,457 (12.6 bb) 19/13 & 9% 3b over 145 hands
CO: 648,660 (64.9 bb)
BTN: 258,533 (25.9 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Th Ah
Hero raises to 20,000, MP2 folds, MP3 raises to 125,457 and is all-in. 4 folds.
There is 167,457 in the pot and it is 105,457 to call. Pot odds are 1.59:1. This is essentially for my tournament life.
I was playing pretty tight this whole tournament. Not sure if this was a bad open with ATs. We were 7 handed but there were two stacks slightly shorter than mine so ICM probably dictates that I stay out of the way here and hope to ladder up. I made the open though and his shove put me in a tough spot. He had 3bet shoved over my BTN open about 15 hands ago. What is his shoving range here? I think somewhere around 16-18%, which would make this a 50/50 flip, but maybe tighter because of my image and EP open.
Was this a bad open? What do I do now? This is a bad time to flip, right?
May 20, 2015
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It’s quite hard to reach a favourable outcome after opening here with this hand. We have two reshove stacks which can put us in a tough spot and all other players have significant chip leads on us and can put significant ICM pressure on us. I think given the stack sizes at the table it would be best to play push/fold in this spot. ATs is a very slightly profitable shove, I would fold if I felt I had a significant skill edge on the table and shove if I did not feel that was the case.
As played I would fold to the 3bet, 16-18% range is much wider than I would give villain in this spot. I would expect to see something like 66+, A9s+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo, although I would not be surprised if he is folding some of these hands. I would not give any significance to his shove over you button open as it has only happened once and is a very different situation to an UTG open.
December 24, 2013
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My guess is this is a profitable shove preflop. It’s a pretty top heavy final table. If you’re called by top 5%, without card removal, thats around 70% of the time. You having a T and an A make it slightly less likely you’re called.
June 2, 2013
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I would open shove this too, fold if there was a really short stack at the table.
September 15, 2015
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Thanks for the feedback. I think what really happened was that I knew it was a borderline shove, but tried to get a min open though planning to fold to a raise. Got some reason rather than folding a got the bright idea that if I won the flip I’d make money on busting the guy and more or less snap called. Bad, I I know. He had KK and I was out in 7th. If I were to do it again I’m not sure I’d shove though, probably fold.
December 24, 2013
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If you could list the pay outs and the stats for the other players, we might be able to figure out if shove or fold or something else is best.
September 15, 2015
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I don’t have the exact payouts but this a decent approximation.
1:$3800
2:$2400
3:$1450
4:$850
5:$625
6:$465
7:$340
Here are player stacks and VPIP/PFR/3b.
SB: 536,059 (53.6 bb) 29/19/13 – 42
BB: 380,838 (38.1 bb) 29/21/18 – 42
Hero (MP1): 158,124 (15.8 bb) 12/10/6
MP2: 146,329 (14.6 bb) 10/2/0 – 42
Villain MP3: 126,457 (12.6 bb) 19/13/9 – 145
CO: 648,660 (64.9 bb) 22/20/8 – 220
BTN: 258,533 (25.9 bb) 34/23/2 – 316
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