Home
(0 votes) 
May 31, 2012
Offline
hi guys, would like your opinions on whether you are folding this spot, i had played with dalzini for quite a while on the last 3 three tables and he had been solid and picking good spots to 3bet playing at 20/18 over 146 hands and 3 betting 7.8% always from CO or the blinds. he had only been 4bet once when he called a shove and showed JJ when down to 2 tables. My image has been solid at the FT playing 15/15 with no resistance up to this point. i had looked everybody up on opr and Dalzini and metalhelmet were the two most profitable players at the table so was already thinking going in, they may be more likley to make moves than the others but this shallow looking back im not so sure. thanks all.
Poker Stars $3.00+$0.30 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t50000/t100000 Blinds + t10000 – 8 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
MetalHelmet (BB): BB = 21.0, t2097522
nekill1984 (UTG): BB = 10.7, t1071549
overTA (UTG+1): BB = 15.3, t1531777
frankwhite42 (MP1): BB = 23.5, t2347734
Hero (MP2): BB = 18.5, t1847460
dalzini (CO): BB = 16.6, t1660827
abeja01 (BTN): BB = 16.9, t1694770
navnet er… (SB): BB = 28.3, t2829361
Pre Flop: (t230000) Hero is MP2 with Q
A
3 folds, Hero raises to t201245, dalzini raises to t489999, 3 folds, Hero
May 30, 2012
Offline
To me this seems like just an open ship pre unless we are inducing a shove. When he 3bets your open that small from a 16.6bb stack I tend to think he's nutted because he should never be folding. He's just shipping hands like AJ/AT, and smaller pocket pairs. I dont know him, but few people are capable of three betting here light with these stats and stacks. Might be a nit fold. If he just shoves I am calling all day.
June 14, 2012
Offline
We're in the HJ with AQ and <20bb. A shove here seems like overkill and a raise/fold is really bad. R/C all day.
If we shove, pretty sure nothing worse ever calls, AJ sometimes, and we're gonna be flipping/dominated a lot.
I mean I don't think he's light necessarily, which makes the spot gross, but I don't think I'm ever folding AQ here. I've seen people raise/fold 3bet/fold shallower stacks before tho, especially in these 3r.
June 5, 2012
Offline
I think there are a lot of factors that go into the decision of push/minraise preflop, but at a $3 rebuy I would think that a minraise is usually better, but either one is probably fine.
His tiny 3B does look gross, and I don’t think we CAN’T ever fold here, because there’s no absolutes, etc. But thinking it through, I think it does end up being a jam.
**WRONG**In terms of chip EV, its not that terrible, EVEN IF he has the tightest possible range (QQ+ AK…I don't think he could be much tighter). With all the dead money out there, 28% equity is break even and AQ has 24.4%.**WRONG**
Considering how active he is, especially in late position, I think we can assign him a wider range than that, however. Just adding JJ makes it +cEV.
But also I think we need to consider our open range from here, and AQ is near the top. So folding would be super exploitable.
ALSO, depending how he sees you, he could be making this raise knowing that you know that you shouldn't have fold equity. Since he is a winning player.
Putting all these factors together, I think its a mandatory jam.
October 6, 2010
Offline
Why is a min raise better in a $3 tourney? I think a lot worse still calls at these stakes if we jam and at the micros you still get flatted sometimes. I am shoving 90% of the time and raise-calling the rest.
At higher stakes I would tend more and more towards raise calling but def still shove this sometimes
May 30, 2012
Offline
Forgive me if my math is wrong/confusing, but we need about 41.1% equity to call, and against a range of qq+ and ak we only have about 24.3% like floppedbackdoortrips states.
*hero's needed equity=hero's call/(hero's call+total pot before call)
10k*8=80k
sb+bb=50k+100k=150k
total pot after villains shove-230k+201k+1660k=2091k
villains shove-hero's raise=1660k-201k=1459k
*hero's pot odds to call, 1459k/(1459k+2091k)=41.1%
It's funny that you say Dalzini has good results because if he has aa or kk here he is playing it really poorly. If anything he is allowing you to get away from aj/aq and other good hands. I really can't see him 3 bet/folding here or doing it light, which makes me think he is nutted. I probably unhappily nit fold like i said before.
June 5, 2012
Offline
James is right, I have no idea how I got 28%. We need 41%, assuming no FE.
And benny, my thought on the minraise was that, at a final table, we are much more likely to get people to shove worse than we are to get called with worse. Also, I wouldn't give people credit for recognizing that our minraise is inducing light shoves at these stakes.
It's definitely debateable.
July 3, 2010
Offline
Kinda gross that he sticks in 1/3 of his stack instead of shoving but I think we need to jam here. If he's good, he can definitely be doing this with a worse Ax seeing the A as a blocker etc. etc. etc.
It's a scary bet size that makes it so that we need a premium to re-ship, and we should be opening pretty wide when it folds around to us. Jam it in. If you got coolered, on to the next one.
July 2, 2012
Offline
JamesFaucette said:JamesFaucette said:
To me this seems like just an open ship pre unless we are inducing a shove. When he 3bets your open that small from a 16.6bb stack I tend to think he's nutted because he should never be folding. He's just shipping hands like AJ/AT, and smaller pocket pairs. I dont know him, but few people are capable of three betting here light with these stats and stacks. Might be a nit fold. If he just shoves I am calling all day.
+2
normally a guy 3betting u here if we were deeper is just a standard move from a schooled player, taking initiative, and control of the pot, representing real strength, assuming we are somewhat light frm the HJ..that being said, he is doing this with only 16bbs to start the hand. VERY ODD. His logic also here could be : “my 16bb stack, a min 3bet looks so damn strong here”:. kwim? so with that being said, I think with open shipping it takes all the thinking out it for u, and puts everyone elses in much tougher spots..A lot of times we do get called by worse in these stakes i.e. A9s+ 66+, KJs-KQs and we are in pretty good shape against those..with 18bbs we really don't have manuvarability here..we don't want to be raise folding our stack away, youre just bleeding chips…i think as played its a 4bet jam.AQ is just too good of a hand at this stage to fold… i think optimal is open shoving aq here tho. happy to pick up the blinds, people will perceive us much lighter then aq a lot in these stakes. and when we do get looked up we almost always have outs…definitely disagree w Nokaman on this…hate raise call here, its much too awkard of a spot, and very difficult post when u miss aq oop. for example we wiff flop, we cbet any flop and get called or shipped on….then what??? your just bleeding chips..now if we were sitting at 25+ it may be different. But our stack is 18, and im sure the blinds are fixin to bring that number way down here in no time…ship it..you have to exploit your edges at this stage n get max value out of our hands if we want to win the tourney and build our stack. this is one of those spots imo…we arent deep enough to do shit, but as soon as the guy from the sb, or the co raiser looks us up with A10s-Ajs or KQS or whatever, 34bb seems like a road to at least the top 3…:D gl
May 31, 2012
Offline
i was raising with the intention of calling a shove but when he 3bets this small im thinking AA,KK,QQ or AK and possibly JJ, i think 66-1010 shove pre, so am pretty much crushed all the time as i dont see him doing this light and i wasnt being really aggro at this table. still knowing this and with my stack i think i can never fold this spot. Anyway i shoved and he insta called and rolled over KK, GG.
Most Users Ever Online: 2780
Currently Online:
35 Guest(s)
Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)
Top Posters:
bennymacca: 2616
Foucault: 2067
folding_aces_pre_yo: 1133
praetor: 1033
theginger45: 924
P-aire 146: 832
Turbulence: 768
The Riceman: 731
duggs: 591
florianm1: 588
Newest Members:
Habanerra
CSerpent
KJ
Tillery999
sdmathis89
ne0x00
Forum Stats:
Groups: 4
Forums: 24
Topics: 12705
Posts: 75003
Member Stats:
Guest Posters: 1063
Members: 12011
Moderators: 2
Admins: 5
Administrators: RonFezBuddy, Killingbird, Tournament Poker Edge Staff, ttwist, Carlos
Moderators: sitelock, sitelock_1
