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FT Bubble, Weird Payout Structure, ICM?

mhonan981

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June 29, 2015 - 3:43 pm

BetOnline.com $20 Rebuy $10k Guarantee – 330 players, 30 paid

Not a tournament I play very often as BetOnline is terrible IMO (one such reason is their payouts), but unfortunately it's one of my only options for playing in NYC on a Mac (can't move to NJ soon enough). My question arises because of how top heavy their payouts are on the site and how big of an ICM decision this spot might be.

In this particular tournament places 30th to 11th were all a min cash of $156 and then 10th (final table is 10 handed) pays $400 and ramps up to $4,100 up top. Stacks are very shallow at this stage and I believe the average was actually less than 15 bigs. Play had also tighthend considerably on the FT bubble and there is one or two <5 bb stacks on the other table (5 players). Also imporant to note that this is a NO ANTE tournament (another weird twist). Anyway…

7,500/15,000/Zero Ante

SB – 110k

BB – 95k

UTG (Villain) – 165k – shoves

HJ Folds

CO Folds

BTN (Hero) – 125k – AKo calls

Both blinds fold and UTG has JJ and we miss, busting in 11th for a min cash

I actually pondered a fold for a bit as UTG was an incredibly tight player and thought he was very pair heavy in this spot. I had been at his table almost the entire tournament and thought a range of 99+, AQs+, AKo (and maybe even tighter given the bubble) was reasonable here against which I have about 43% equity.

At first this seemed like an instacall, but without antes, something tells me it's closer than it appears on the surface. I think I might need something like 45% here, in addition to short(er) stacks all around, and 10th place paying over 2.5x what 11th pays, is this actually a fold!?

Mainly a cash player so don't consider ICM spots too much, but is this a spot that can be easily solved? Thanks as always

Matt

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June 29, 2015 - 4:35 pm

I don't believe it's a fold. The range you gave villain is super tight, imo. If it was 9-handed table this would be acceptable as a tight UTG range. There are no antes, but your stack is very low – if you want a chance to win more than the 10-handed min-cash this is, I think, a spot you should take!

If we give him a (still very tight) range of 88+, ATs+, AQo+, KQs and 2 of four JTs (to have a semi bluff in his range, there is always a chance even a tight player may spew from time to time, expecially UTG when he feels like the next BB/SB will eat up more of his stack soon) you get 52.2% equity, just too good to ever fold.

It's also noteable that villain covers all other players, psychologically this should lead to looser shoves in general.

One exception I would make, if the bump from 11th to 10th would be live-changing for you/your bankroll. For example if your roll is $4k and you make $3k in 11th and $8k in 10th. Then I would agree on a QQ+ calling range, or even KK+, if there are at least two smallstacks who are likely to bust before you. Anyways one shouldn't be playing a tournament that has these live-changing sums for grabs in the first place as usually it means it is bad BRM.

Well, I think you did the right thing here… call! Just move on and ship it next time.

Anyways, this sounds like the worst tournament structure ever, 10 handed FT? lol. Actually seems to favour pros with the top-heaviness, except for the missing antes. What are the time-intervals blinds are increased?

mhonan981

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June 29, 2015 - 4:48 pm

Yeah I agree your range may be closer to reality, but even if we say this is a slightly +EV shove, I wonder if ICM say its a fold given everyone else's stack sizes and payjumps. Yes, I'm short but even the chip leader still has like 20 bb. I've never used any type of ICM calculator but I'll look into it.

Also agree on your exception based on my BR, but that was one of the reasons I made the call. This min-cash to 11th difference was not significant money (although $4200 to 1st is). Just wondering regardless of the absolute dollars whether this call is closer to a fold or if I'm just overthinking it.

Yes worst structure ever and 10 min levels, but worst players ever too so I think there is still a lot of value and being very top heavy may actually be a positive if you have a good edge on the field. Playing without Antes just seems wrong!

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