November 9, 2015
I am unsure on the best line to take, do I check call with the good price or check raise for stacks taking a higher variance line in the late game against a shorter stack? Naturally I feel inclined to take the lower variance line and take my good pot odds and fold more if the next card is not favourable but then also preserving my stack. However, with him been pretty short and will be folding a lot I took a check raise line. Is there a stack size we should be taking a 100% check raise line against in this spot? Should we be taking lower variance lines in the late game?
We two off the final table, I am second in chips and villain is opening loosely and Cbetting high frequency like 80% so I expect a lot of folds to my check raise but also a decent amount of equity when we get it in. If I loose this spot we swap places in the tourney and I loose my ability to open as wide and steal pots with a small Cbet which is proving very effective at this stakes. I am torn on which line to take as I think there a pros/cons for each but maybe the stage of the tournament and dynamics of the table should influence the line I take perhaps? I would be interested on your thoughts….the hand is below.
partypoker – 30000/60000 NL (8 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
MP: 26.9 BB
CO: 48 BB
BTN: 28.73 BB
SB: 48.62 BB
[b]Hero (BB): 55.6 BB
UTG: 83.64 BB
6 players post ante of 0 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, [b]Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.18 BB) Hero has K 9
fold, MP raises to 2.2 BB, fold, BTN calls 2.2 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.2 BB
Flop: (7.78 BB, 3 players) T 8 2
Hero checks, MP bets 4.2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 20.38 BB, MP raises to 24.59 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 4.21 BB
Turn: (56.96 BB, 2 players) J
River: (56.96 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero shows K 9 (One Pair, Nines)
(Pre 13%, Flop 39%, Turn 34%)
MP shows K K (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 87%, Flop 61%, Turn 66%)
MP wins 56.96 BB
February 8, 2017
It’s important to realize that you are asking two distinct questions. Drawing a clear distinction between them may make it easier to find answers. To summarize, it seems like you are asking:
1) How should I play this hand?
2) How much should I change my play based on the worst case scenario for stack distribution after this hand?
I’ll start with question 2. In my opinion, the simple answer is very little (if at all). Although it is crucial to adjust your play when losing a hand could eliminate you from the tournament, it becomes much harder to make a case for playing a hand sub-optimally based on the risk of losing an advantageous chip position. Sacrificing EV to lower risk is rarely a good decision. I’m struggling to explain this (past my bedtime), but it can be demonstrated mathematically.
As for how you should play this hand in particular, I think shoving flop is probably better than calling but both are viable. My brain is shutting down but I wanted to give you some sort of answer. I’ll try to expand on this post soon.
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