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FT bubble - flopped top pair and nut flush draw - facing 2 shoves - is this a call or a fold?
GaryLQ
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April 20, 2011 - 11:47 am
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Are you calling here guys?

I'm 7th/11 from 298 starters in this low stakes rebuy tourney on the Pacific network. 20th to 11th places all get paid the same small sum, then there are significant pay jumps with each position. I decide to limp behind with my suited ace (see post below), there is no SB due to an elimination in the previous hand. Both of my opponents in this hand have been playing a fairly ABC TAG game, while the first shover might be on a draw or a vulnerable made hand I'm sure the second guy to push must have a strong made hand.

 If I win this monster pot I will eliminate 2 opponents and give myself a great opportunity to take the tourney down, if I lose my stack will be crippled and I'm almost certainly doomed to an 11th place finish. 

pilotbuilder (BB): 51,937.00
Razbo84 (BB): 228,183.00
nicolaalder (UTG): 63,387.00
8room (CO): 136,698.00
GaryQ17 (BTN): 73,082.00

Razbo84 posts ante 500.00, GaryQ17 posts ante 500.00, 8room posts ante 500.00, pilotbuilder posts ante 500.00, nicolaalder posts ante 500.00, pilotbuilder posts BB 5,000.00

Pre Flop: (7500.00) GaryQ17 has  Aspade 5spade

fold, nicolaalder calls 5,000.00, fold, GaryQ17 calls 5,000.00, pilotbuilder checks

Flop: (17500.00, 3 players)  Adiamond Qspade Tspade

pilotbuilder bets 46,437.00,

nicolaalder raises to 57,887.00,

GaryQ17 ????

Eske
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April 20, 2011 - 1:15 pm
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Well this must be your dream flop. I dont think that preflop was good. With only 15 bb you dont have the implied odds to hit a flop, but you have the reverse implied odds when you hit your draw. Like now. I believe that a push pre would have been more +$EV.

But now that you have called pre, I dont think that folding is a option on this board. You have the odds for it ot be +cEV. And maybe you are already in front.

Board: Ad Qc Tc
Dead: 

 equity  win  tie        pots won  pots tied 
Hand 0:  38.917%   37.65%  01.27%         1288371      43517.33   { Ac5c }
Hand 1:  44.761%   41.79%  02.97%         1430254     101635.83   { QQ+, TT, ATs+, KcJc, QTs, Jc9c, ATo+, KJo, QTo }
Hand 2:  16.322%   14.39%  01.93%          492464      66127.83   { KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, Kc8c, Kc7c, Kc6c, Kc5c, Kc4c, Kc3c, Kc2c, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Jc7c, Jc6c, Jc5c, Jc4c, Jc3c, Jc2c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 9c6c, 9c5c, 9c4c, 9c3c, 9c2c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 8c5c, 8c4c, 8c3c, 8c2c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 7c4c, 7c3c, 7c2c, 6c5c, 6c4c, 6c3c, 6c2c, 4c3c, 4c2c, 3c2c, KJo, QTo, J9o }

GaryLQ
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April 20, 2011 - 2:17 pm
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Thank-you for your input Eske.

I chose to flat call rather than raise because I was suspicious of the open limp by nicolaalder, until that point he/she had only been opening pots with a raise.

a10fouru
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April 20, 2011 - 5:19 pm
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Don't limp pre. If you are suspicious, then you should fold as you are hoping for a miracle flop and would be dominated by the hand you are suspicious of.

 

It's a pretty good flop…and if you are risk averse, fold. But I wouldn't count on your TP being good here as you are out kicked more often than not. More than likey you up against a similar draw and 2 pair.

southpaw_r32
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April 20, 2011 - 8:30 pm
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I probably go with the hand knowing I need to hit a spade to take the pot down, hoping the board doesn't pair.

terbet11
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April 21, 2011 - 5:58 pm
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you must get it in here, if not, why even enter the hand..you hit your flop so go with it.  I persoanlly fold pre due to your's and the villain's stack size.  Just remember the odds of you flopping a set is slightly better 11.8% than flopping a flush draw 11% so pretend you are holding pocket 3s here.  As mentioned before, you don't have the implied odds to just call.  I either fold or jam pre (wouldn't recomend)..but the way played you hit your flop and even have top pair to boot, so get it in and go for the win.

G0liath
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April 21, 2011 - 6:37 pm
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I Really can’t fold this flop with all that money out there, your getting more than 2/1 with the nut flush draw. You may even have additional outs. How long are you willing to ride the shortstack? Get it in and either give yourself a chance to take down the tourney or bust trying.

Agree with the others too, I would never limp here.

hapetimes
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April 22, 2011 - 9:35 am
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snap it in here – like bigdog says 'play every tourney to WIN' and bugger me if this isnt the way to chip up then i dont know what is!

fwiw even if i'm not suspicious of this guys limp pre ie even if he's a limping fish – i'm probably always folding.

Cougars4444
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April 22, 2011 - 2:11 pm
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100% getting it in here.  Not sure we can ask for a better flop for our hand.  I really don't think we should ever be limping behind here, as A10fourru said if we are suspicious we need to fold as we are hoping for a miracle flop.  We in fact got our miracle flop so go ahead and get it in and hit our spade.

FkCoolers
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April 23, 2011 - 9:26 am
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Cougars4444 said:

100% getting it in here.  Not sure we can ask for a better flop for our hand.  I really don't think we should ever be limping behind here, as A10fourru said if we are suspicious we need to fold as we are hoping for a miracle flop.  We in fact got our miracle flop so go ahead and get it in and hit our spade.

Yep – I mean, it seems to me you limped to flop a flush draw or 2 pair so the post-flop decision isn't really a decision at all.

But don't overlimp there. 

Hagbard Celine
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April 23, 2011 - 12:29 pm
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Cougars4444 said:

100% getting it in here.  Not sure we can ask for a better flop for our hand.  I really don't think we should ever be limping behind here, as A10fourru said if we are suspicious we need to fold as we are hoping for a miracle flop.  We in fact got our miracle flop so go ahead and get it in and hit our spade.

This.

 

Get it in, and if you miss, get your ass in the backyard and practice hitting your flushdraws.

FabulousTexan
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April 24, 2011 - 7:44 pm
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GaryLQ said:

Are you calling here guys?

I'm 7th/11 from 298 starters in this low stakes rebuy tourney on the Pacific network. 20th to 11th places all get paid the same small sum, then there are significant pay jumps with each position.

 

 

You got to play to win the tournament.

Whatever decision you make (unless it's a satellite where 1st-x ALL get the same tournament entry/ticket, same prize, etc) you're never worried about 11th place vs 9th place, etc.) should only be based on what is the best decision to try and win the tournament. I'm not saying become the maniac that shoves chips in bad. But never let your judgment or analysis be clouded by the difference between one or two pay jumps.

Long term you'll be better off with a tournament win a 9 11th place finished than 10 8th place finishes.

DroppinDimes
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April 25, 2011 - 10:04 am
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Getting it in all day everyday as played and as everyone has mentioned dont limp pre.

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