I'm never not 3betting this pre, we have QQ at a final table 38bbs effective, we should be willing to 3b/5b this vs an aggro 23/21 reg allllll day. I'm also raise/getting it in on flop, seeing as it's unlikely he'd lead with better than a one pair hand, we have blockers to the nuts and are never drawing dead, and we can incite him to get it in with hands like T9, J9, KQ and others which we crush. As played I think turn and river are both calls, I just don't see why he'd lead a Jx hand or a Tx hand on all 3 streets there. I just feel like he doesn't have it.

duggs said:

theginger45 said:

I'm never not 3betting this pre, we have QQ at a final table 38bbs effective, we should be willing to 3b/5b this vs an aggro 23/21 reg allllll day. I'm also raise/getting it in on flop, seeing as it's unlikely he'd lead with better than a one pair hand, we have blockers to the nuts and are never drawing dead, and we can incite him to get it in with hands like T9, J9, KQ and others which we crush. As played I think turn and river are both calls, I just don't see why he'd lead a Jx hand or a Tx hand on all 3 streets there. I just feel like he doesn't have it.

3b/5b given positions and expect him to get it in with which worse hands? QQ+ AK+. where as in a vacumn its a good spot to flat for the reason john said. Given history i widen my 3bet range here but without dynamics flatting is cool. leading air for 3 streets into a polarized preflop range on that board in a 3bet pot just isnt going to happen. 

you also included Jx and 10x hands in his donking range but then removed it from his turn and river range which makes 0 sense imo

Yeah I'm looking at this hand a little differently now. I wrote that analysis at like 5am the other night, def contradicted myself. I do still think it's a super standard spot to just bet until we get it in pre, because villain is an active reg in an $11 tournament who, even if he's not 4b/getting it in with hands like TT/JJ (which it would probably be +cEV for him to do if we're being appropriately aggressive), can still put more chips in the pot with other hands and allow us to play a 3bet pot in position with the best hand. I don't see the logic in assuming he's not gonna go nuts preflop, but then playing our hand in a way that only allows us to get maximum value if he goes nuts postflop with top pair on Jxx or 99 on 8xx.

Postflop I really can't make sense of his line, I can't think of a single hand that a reg should be donkbetting the flop with in a 3bet pot on that flop that continues to play the hand in this way. It'd make sense to donk flop with a set if he wants us to raise him with QQ+ (which fwiw I still think we should do, and the reason we're in this spot on river is because we don't raise/get it in on flop), but by the time we get to the river he has to either be trying to get ridiculously thin value with 88 or have quads, both of which are super unlikely. I don't know any more, I find it super tough to judge turn and river because I just don't like flatting the flop with so many bad turns to come. Literally any card 7 or higher can potentially give us the worst hand. The more I think about it the more I think not getting it in on the flop is really bad.