This is a situation where EV calculations can help us a lot. For semi-bluff shoves:

EV = (Fold% * Pot) + {Call% * [Win% * (Pot + Bet) – (Lose% * Bet)]}

To find the Breakeven point of a play we can solve for EV of 0

For open jamming flop I’ll assume that you’re never called by more than 1 player and that our OESD has 30% equity when called

0 = (Fold% * 3300) + {Call% * [30% * (3300 + 6980) – (70% * 6980)]}

0 = (F * 3300) + [(1-F) * (3084 – 4886)]

– 3300F =  1802F – 1802

F =  0.353

So to break even on our shove we need all three players to fold at least 35.3% of the time. Probably a little too ambitious, if each player calls at least 13% of their range we are making a losing play.

For check-raise jamming I’ll use a villain bet of 40% pot, assume that all other players fold and we still have 30% equity. This can be a little confusing because when called our EV remains the same, but we win more when villain folds.

0 = [F * (3300 + 1320)] + [(1-F) * (3084 – 4886)]

-4620F = 1802F – 1802

F = 0.281

Now we only need villain to fold 28.1% of the time for our play to break even. It’s still pretty ambitious as a lot of players will not fold this often after betting into 4 players but I think this play is justifiable considering we only have 12bb if we fold. I like this play unless you are near the bubble/close enough to the final table that ICM becomes a factor.

Check/folding feels like we are giving up a lot of equity but is also fine, and in some situations (especially against some villains) I think it is by far the best play. Check/calling can be okay against a very small bet (or if someone else has already called) but we’re going to be forced to fold a lot of turns with even less chips in our stack.

Having a ~33% draw (OESD + backdoor FD), a ~35% draw (naked FD or OESD + 1 overcard) or a 40%+ draw (FD + 1 over or OESD + 2 overs) is much better for the check-raise shove line.

EDIT: I also think Andrew’s suggestion to consider bet flop/shove turn (if called by 1 player) is strong. We can get peeled once by a lot of 8x that may or may not call our turn shove, and might even fold out a hand like T9s on the turn.