Agree with Sig. I don't feel great about your hand, especially after the long tank, but you are getting pretty great odds. If you give up with a huge % of your range on the turn, you do actually give Villain a lot of incentive to c/r bluff turn and then give up river.

bortzork said:

Thanks for the replies.

I defaulted to folding.

Ran the ranges before the next break, giving villian range that gets to turn and makes that bet as:

99-55, 22, KQcc-54cc, KJcc-64cc, KTcc-J8cc, K9cc-K8cc, AJcc-A2cc, Ac9x-Kc9x, Q9o-T9o with one club,QJo, QTo, JTo with one club, KQo-K9o for 197 combos against which I am 60%. If I throw in AKs and AKo (unlikely as he 3bets these preflop always) with card removal accounted for it only changes to 57%. My takeaway after analysis confirmed my gut feeling to push here as high +ev spot, albeit with higher variance.

Comments?

Should have mentioned in original post that he had 3bet from the blinds 3 times in the prior 2 hours and received folds each time, once from me. He was otherwise opening a reasonable range, but his prior 3bets made it clear that the top of his preflop range was very unlikely at this point.

Comments on taking villians range and playing brick rivers if I just call?

I did speak to villian on break and was able to obtain his hand (85% probability of being truthful IMHO), will post after any further comments.

Determing that you are a favorite vs Villain's range is a reason to not-fold. It is not, by itself, a reason to shove. You need to be in good shape vs Villain's range for calling a shove to make shoving correct.

If you're ahead on the turn, there are only a few possible river scenarios:

1. Villain shoves his entire range. In this case, you'd generally want to call (see (3) below for an exception). Even though plenty of hands beat you, there will be lots of bluffs as well, and you are getting good odds.

2. Villain shoves a range against which you have poor equity. In this case, you fold. The thing is, because you believe you are ahead on the turn, Villain can only shove a range like this if he also checks a lot of hands you are beating, which means that even though you fold to a shove, you'll often get to showdown and win. Otherwise, you are in either situation (1) or (3). Basically, he can't go from a range that's usually behind on the turn to way ahead on the river. Either he checks often or he bluffs often. Unless…

3. The river card is so bad for you that you fold to a shove even though you believe Villain would shove his full range. I haven't crunched rivers, but I imagine this would be all clubs but nothing else.

So really, if you're ahead on the turn, there are good rivers for you: any non-club. When you already have the best hand, you don't have to worry about whether the river will improve you. You only have to worry about whether it will improve such a huge chunk of your opponent's range that you can no longer call a bet even if he always bluffs his weak hands.

bortzork said:

I like the way you dissect out the three river possibilities, thank you. 

With a good made hand with a threeflush on board at the turn, none of that suit in my hand, I am uncomfortable just calling. If I just call his raise he is then settting his price to see the river and draw to a flush, two pair, etc. If I raise him all in I am representing what he most likely fears, AK, or even AcKx, (remember, I am the “old man”), or at least a very strong range. He then has to fold a lot of hands with very good equity?

So if I just call the turn raise, are you advocating calling all non club rivers?

Fwiw, villain later told me he had Jc9x. This makes sense, fits in with his very long tanking. If he had a stronger or weaker hand  I don't think he takes that long to decide.

There are worse things than letting hands that are behind see one more free/cheap card. The problem with shoving slightly ahead/way behind hands is that when you're called you're, well, way behind.

As for whether to call any given river, return to the range you put him on on the turn. Look at the hands in that range that you are still beating, and then ask yourself what he would do with those hands.

Failing that, consider your own range for just calling the turn check-raise, and think about which would be your best bluff-catchers on any given river. If this is all Greek to you, watch my Range Construction series that is going up now, gets into a lot more detail about how to do this.