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Foucalt Nightly $150 StopnGo River check/raise bluff hand
jacobsharktank
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Playing The Prelims
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December 23, 2014 - 11:50 pm
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Hey TPE, I had a few questions about what was going on in the StopnGo video Andrew Brokos put out a few weeks ago, and he asked me to post them in a manner visible to all.

 

Stacks are deep as it's level 2 of the tournament. 15/30/

Villain raises off 3k stack to 66 in the hijack and Andrew calls in the big blind with 7s6h getting 111 to 36 (windows calculator won't' sit in a window mode on windows 8….on another computer at the moment).

flop is 5s 7h Js (147)

Andrew checks, villain bets 58, Andrew calls.

5s 7h Js 4s (263)

Andrew checks, villain checks.

5s 7h Js 4s Kc (263)

Andrew checks, villain bets 105, Andrew raises to 478 and villain folds.

 

In the video, Andrew states that the K is better for villain's range than our own, but his range has a lot of air in it overall given that he raised in late position and checked the turn. The only thing that we can't do is fold, which is actually the most likely choice I would have made prior to watching this. Villain would have to give up a lot of bluffs for this to not at least be a call, and I see that now.

 

Now, I'm confused on the necessity for the check/raise. If villain's range is disproportionately bluffs, are we expecting him to have a decent number of Jx or Kx combos relative to the number of bluffs and stronger hands value betting here? I don't think villain would bluff with pocket pairs like 88-TT when he has a lot of combos of air to choose, which means we beat all of his bluffs. I believe this is one of the weakest hands we have in our range after playing out the hand, so I can see it being a candidate to use as a bluff should we choose to run one. However, it looks we're profitable to call anyway. I feel like I'm missing something overall so was hoping for a step haha. Is it that both just happen to be profitable because he's going to bet/fold too often?

 

Now boom, let's all talk about this everybody! We've had some pretty sweet discussions going the last few days. Let's keep it up. 

Foucault

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December 24, 2014 - 10:14 am
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“it looks we’re profitable to call anyway”

Just because a call is profitable doesn’t mean a raise isn’t more profitable. This is actually a strategic decision to make before checking the turn. It’s entirely possible that betting all of your strongest hands and some bluffs and then just check-calling with some bluff-catchers is the best river strategy, in which case you wouldn’t check-raise this except for exploitive reasons (which I do think with his small sizing might be a good idea anyway as that usually indicates a thin value bet). If you are going to look to check-raise strong hands, and I often do on cards that are better for my opponent’s range than for mine, then you need to balance that with some bluffs. Given how the board has run out, I do think this is pretty much the bottom of my range, and it does have a flush blocker, though I don’t think that’s terribly relevant.

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